Cubbie Nation

Cubbie Nation Power Rankings

Damen Jackson — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 09:05:00 GMT

Filed:January 2nd, 2009

Al Yellon/Bleed Cubbie Blue

I still prefer the Fall Classic.

Not even a couple of seasons as an Andy Frain usher in the old Chicago Stadium was enough to turn me into a fan. It just never took.

But as a baseball-crazed fan dreaming fondly of warmer times, and counting the days to Spring Training, it was nice to see a vibrant, populated Wrigley Field. I appreciated seeing a few fan shots of Wrigley in the winter, so I figured that you might too.

That said, this is as good a time as any to start taking a look around the league to see the progression of things. Baseball is almost here again, after all. And while the free agent signings haven't advanced along as far as we might have hoped, we're certainly far enough into the off-season to get a feel about who is serious about winning in 2009.

As such, welcome to the Power Rankings, a new piece that we'll be featuring here at Cubbie Nation. Although you should expect from here till Opening Day to see it once or twice a month, it's slotted as a weekly article from then on out.

Enjoy the piece, and for that matter the rest of your holiday weekend. And drop me a note when the champagne wears off, and let me know what you think.

Power Rankings
Rank	Prev	Team	Comments
1	-	Yankees	Sabathia? Check. Burnett? Check? Teixeira? Check. The only thing left to do is pluck Ramirez to play left, and the off-season is complete.
2	-	Phillies	Apparently, I’m one the five people in the country who like the Ibanez-for- Burrell swap. The Cubs have a semi-vote of no confidence right now, and the Mets haven’t made moves yet. They’ll stay at this spot for awhile.
3	-	Red Sox	You know what I love more than their cash, and minor-league stockpile? The ability to take fliers on players like Brad Penny, and usually be richly rewarded. Shame about Teixeira though.
4	-	Rays	Until I see a potent bat added to that lineup, they’re at number four; and likely dropping.
5	-	Cubs	Ibanez. Dunn. Bradley. Abreu. Yadda, yadda, yadda. Here’s an idea. If you can’t get Abreu in the 3/30 neighborhood, keep your powder dry till the trading deadline. Scoring runs was never the problem, even with a absentee Kosuke Fukudome.
6	-	Angels	Another vote of no-confidence. Everything is there, but there’s just something not quite right with this team.
7	-	Braves	Sticking Kelly Johnson in left field wouldn’t be the end of the world, but Abreu looks like just what this team needs.
8	-	A's	What can I say? They seem to want to spend some money, and they’ve got good talent. A real darkhorse out west.
9	-	Indians	Something that resembles a real bullpen with Kerry Wood on-board, and a good crop of talent still. I’m high on them, especially now that DeRosa is there too.
10	-	Mets	If GM Omar Minaya can find someone to take Luis Castillo, I’ll consider it one of the greatest moves ever made by a front office. In the meantime, a starting pitcher sighting would go a long way toward a big move up the rankings. Grabbing one of the left field bats would get you in the top five.
11	-	White Sox	I like where Kenny Williams is taking that team. Check back in a few seasons and they could be world beaters. But with the Butt Brothers -- Dye, Konerko, and Thome -- on the roster, they won't execute their style well enough to be serious in 2009.
12	-	Twins	Done nothing this off-season so far, but they’re the Twins. They’ll be at least a .500 team on execution alone.
13	-	Giants	Love that pitching. The Randy Johnson signing might be the move of the off-season. They are the NL West favorite.
14	-	Dodgers	All the pitching is heading for the door. They were a .500 team before Manny with it, and look go back or worse in 2009 without.
15		Cardinals	Manager Tony LaRussa will have them ready to play, and they'll find starting pitching; somewhere.
16	-	Diamondbacks	Losing Orlando Hudson and the Johnson will hurt, but it’s another year of .500 ball keeping you in contention out in the NL West.
17	-	Blue Jays	It’s a major league team J.P., not the local Jewel. Spend some money already.
18	-	Royals	I think Mike Jacobs will flourish, and Coco Crisp moving David DeJesus out of center will help. With that pitching staff, it’s going to be a good year in KC.
19	-	Brewers	You still can’t play defense, and your top two pitchers are gone. It’s hard to be high on Milwaukee right now.
20	-	Marlins	I’ll feel better about them if they can move Jeremy Hermida for pitching.
21	-	Reds	I was really prepared to but them into the top 15. Then they signed Willy Taveras to a two-year deal. It’s the same old Dusty.
22	-	Astros	Some pitching not named Hawkins would help.
23	-	Rangers	Another offseason passing without addressing the 800-pound gorilla in the room – no pitching.
24	-	Tigers	I’ve no idea what they’re doing up there. And if it was anyone but Dombrowski, they’d be looking for a new GM too after giving Dontrelle Willis a big extension AND losing Jurrgens in the Renteria debacle.
25	-	Nationals	Looking at Adam Dunn?? Really?? They collect LF/1B like Dusty Baker collected second baseman. Still, starter John Lannan is a comer, and I don’t see anyone in the East being a world beater.
26	-	Rockies	I’m still hoping that they flip Street for something more useful.
27	-	Pirates	Did you really give reality TV stars jobs? Only in Pittsburgh.
28	-	Orioles	Jeremy Guthrie, and…??? Matt Albers, maybe? You know, if owner Peter Angelos really wanted to spend 150 million or so this off-season, he could have gotten at least two very good pitcher this off-season; and still had money to burn.
29	-	Mariners	No movement, nor should there be. The year is a wash. Give the kids a look, and start prepping for the draft.
30	-	Padres	It won’t be Memorial Day till the fans are in full-fledged revolt.

DeRosa traded: The New Year isn't so happy...

Damen Jackson — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 20:18:00 GMT

Mark DeRosa(Cubbie Nation/File)

Take back everything good that I've said about Jim Hendry.

In moves that make me wonder if Dusty Baker has returned from the managerial graveyard to haunt the front office, Mark DeRosa has been traded to the Cleveland Indians for a trio of minor-league pitchers.

You guys know me by now. I've no problem with shipping DeRosa out of town. I sell high on principle, so with one year left on his deal, and coming up on 35 years old, this was probably the best time to thank him for his services...and ship him on his way.

And while I do realize that with the sagging free agent market, it was probably more appropriate for many would-be DeRosa suitor to go that route, rather than deal prospects. I mean, Brian Fuentes couldn't even clear 20 million on the market in signing with the Angels, so I think we can all agree tis better this year to bargain shop. But there are still a half-dozen teams that would love to have Mark DeRosa specifically -- if the Peavy debacle was any indication -- so you'd expect that Hendry would get a nice return. And by nice, I mean someone able to help make significant improvements to the 2009 club.

Instead, he gets two A-prospects in Chris Archer and John Gaub, and Triple-A reliever Jeff Stevens. None of which are among the Indians' top twenty prospects, by the way.

Archer and Gaub look to be high upside candidates who may be of some use a few years down the road -- assuming that they stay. Steven is at least interesting, sporting late-inning quality stuff, and high career strikeout totals that put him much in the mold of the prototypical Cubs pitching prospect. Chances are you can expect to see him on the major league roster by summer, if not to start the season.

In short, I hate it. And I really can't see why the Cubs effectively swapped a likely Type A free agent for a middle reliever and some filler. Maybe between obtaining Patton and Stevens, it pushes Michael Wuertz far away from the the Cubs roster, but past that, I can't quite see the point.

Part of another deal? Not likely, as Stevens looks like a few seasons away from a legitimate closer candidate. And most teams have at least one guy like him in the system anyway.

Taking the place of someone about to be traded? There are a few rumors, but you'd expect that for a quality talent like DeRosa, you still could have gotten more sure things.

Freeing up cash to make a bigger move, such as the rumored Milton Bradley signing? Maybe, but I would hope that Hendry on his worst day isn't dumb enough to move DeRosa just to overpay Bradley.

I'm left with two thoughts then. Either he just really wanted a left-handed bat there, or the Cubs are waffling a bit on the salary increases for 2009 that were suggested earlier in the off-season. I'm going to think on this for awhile, and see if there's another alternative. If you've got a take, please share.

Oh, and to complete the day, the Cubs signed Aaron Mile to a two-year deal. No pop. Doesn't get on base. Doesn't play great defense. Maybe he's enough to finally have Cedeno traded or cut, but you could have made a better argument for grabbing Felipe Lopez.

Outfielders, outfielders, outfielders!!!

Damen Jackson — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 17:43:00 GMT

Felix Pie(Cubbie Nation/File)

Filed:December 21st, 2008

Bradley. Abreu. Dunn. Ibanez. Etcetera. Etcetera.

I love these guys. I really do. As a fan of plain old baseball entertainment, I've enjoyed these guys for years.

Who can think of Bobby Abreu without remembering his sweet, elegant grace in the field and at the plate in his prime? Remember the 2005 All-Star Game?

Or the way that Ibanez has carried himself for years now; in my mind one of the benchmarks of how the modern-day baseball player should carry himself. I live thousands of miles away, see maybe a half-dozen Mariners games a season, and even I realize that he's the consummate pro.

And let's not even get started on Adam Dunn. You need only see one of those rocket shots out of Wrigley -- and onto Sheffield -- in person to realize he's a beast; you know, when he's not striking out.

But enough already!!!!! I can't crack a paper, open my e-mail, check out a sports site or blog, or even finish my coffee without these names coming up. Where are they going? What are they getting? Are the Cubs really chasing Milton Bradley? You'll notice that I don't recall him fondly, by the way.

Now, with the holidays approaching, it's likely that these deals will be pushed into the early New Year, and perhaps more so as the Nationals wait to see what the Teixeira talks will bring. I hear they're looking hard at Dunn as a Plan B, so I suspect that some East Coast team -- the Red Sox, Mets, or Nationals likely -- will have to commit some dollars before this situation unclogs.

I stick by my original opinion though either way, in that relievers and corner outfielders are going to get burned, burned, burned in this economic market. But must they postpone the inevitable?

Having all week to reflect on my version of Outfielder on The Brain though, a few thoughts came to mind:

For what it's worth, my current opinion is:

Abreu - Cubs

Dunn - Nationals

Bradley - Hell Rays

The economy will truly hit Main Street by early next year, potentially cutting into ticket sales for the 2009 season. Ancillary purchases should be down, and baseball is cutting fixed costs all around the league. Yet the sport is healthy, acknowledged by all parties involved as flush with cash, and many marketers have signed up for long-term deals. With the suddenly deflated free agent contracts -- just like most everything else right now -- I'm giving it about another month before the grumblings of collusion become louder out of the MLBPA. Remember all those 2/6 deals for corner outfielders earlier this decade that got MLB in trouble back in 2006? After a few too many position players find their initial demands cut by 40 percent, you'll be seeing those complaints all over again.

I keep looking at the Phillies signing of Raul Ibanez, and I just don't get it. I like the move, so don't get me wrong. He's not only a professional bat, but a true pro in a clubhouse that seems to appreciate pros. Production-wise, he should mimic Pat Burrell's batting line for a least the next few seasons, and Internet fodder aside, he's about the same defensively, if not a touch better than Burrell. Maybe the lineup is a touch too left-handed, but he really was about the best fit, in my opinion.

Now maybe the fans should have a beef if they feel they missed out on an impact bat, but really, what was the alternative? Overpay Pat, and watch him de-evolve into more underperforming seasons? Bring back Abreu? Just kidding. And let's not even get started on the personal issues with Burrell. I get to hear a new jaw-dropping story about him every time I visit Philly. I just can't see how he's going to be missed, at least on the field.

The Cubs signing Joey Gathright I get. Signing him before trading Felix Pie is ludicrous.

I consider Gathright about the perfect fifth outfielder; fast, a plus defender, and inexpensive at under a million bucks. It's a good signing. What I'm left wondering is how badly have the Cubs diminished the trade value of Felix Pie in the process? In my mind, it's to about the value of a decent A prospect, and a couple of bats.

Let's see. You can't send him back to the minors; out of options. You won't carry six outfielders. It's extremely unlikely that the Cubs won't add an outfield bat. And the fifth outfield spot was just taken. I feel like I'm looking at Matt Murton all over again. Jim Hendry generally gets a pass with me, as he's been a fine evaluator of major-league talent. But continuing to get himself put into bad trading positions with prospects is inexcusable. I'm beginning to wonder if the concept of selling high just doesn't register with him. And yes, I think of the fact that he should have gotten more for Jose Ceda when I say that.

Bottom line, he appears to be operating under the mindset that he can still lie in wait, and fleece the Pittsburghs of the sport, using whatever prospects are handy. Those teams have more money now, and significantly more desire and ability to secure those arbitration-year players to multi-year deals early, as opposed to trading them. If he wants to use the farm system as the preferred acquisition tool, then fine. But let's start preserving the value of those assets, and trade guys too early, rather than too late.

Lastly was the under-the-radar signing this week of Felipe Lopez by the Diamondbacks; at not only a great price, but a one-year deal. Sad.

Felipe has been my Cubs move of the off-season, assuming that he would be within this price range. I had envisioned him filling the role that manager Lou Piniella keeps trying to tie Mark DeRosa to. He's a switch-hitter, who has shown an ability to play *cough, shortstop, *cough, cough*, and a passable outfield. Keith Law has a fine take on the signing, which I think is worth a read. All I'm going to say further about this is that Washington is where careers seem to go to die. Blame the park, the management, the players who've no winning experience there, an organization that doesn't know how to get things done, or any combination of the above. You should check out his stats before he got sent to purgatory, and what he did immediately upon leaving. Do not be surprised if he's the Comeback Player of The Year. Just sayin.

An amazing day with the Cubs...

Damen Jackson — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 10:44:00 GMT

Filed:December 9th, 2008

The Tribune filing bankruptcy. Greg Maddux retiring. Jake Peavy potentially being acquired as soon as today. Ron Santo's Hall of Fame snub. And that was before the Governor was charged in the biggest corruption case that I can think of since the Monopoly Era in America. Amazing.

Let's start with the Tribune, who officially filed for Chapter 11 protection yesterday. The good news is that according to the release from the Cubs, and some old documentation put together from last year, it should have little effect on the ballclub. It appears that they were spun off as an LLC in advance of the pending sell, and they've been excluded from the filing.

Sam Zell won't get to pocket the cash from the sale, as they are still as asset of the parent, but normal operations shouldn't be impacted, and this allows them to complete the sale in a less-rushed manner. I've suggested here previously that all the talk about a delay in the sale was nonsense until there was accompanying news regarding a renegotiating with creditors. Well, this is the extreme version of that.

These leveraged equity deals are coming home to roost, and in a very nasty way. I don't know what to say. American business plays these games with credit in a manner that gets progressively worse each time the market contracts. First we gobbled up bad loans in S&Ls. Then the Michael Milken-led junk bond market. The maturation of sub-prime in the 90s. CDOs and SIVs earlier this decade, and now crazy LBO deals that would make even Ivan Boesky's jaw drop.

Each time though, it amounts to the same thing: people and entities that had no business with credit getting it, in order to preserve a lifestyle or market they didn't merit. I'd like to think that restructuring would make the Tribune a competitive company. I'm pretty sure though that it's just postponing their demise. Sadly, it's at the expense of the employees.

Ron Santo

Snubbed again. Look, I'm indifferent about his candidacy in general, but if you forced me to comment, I'll tell you that I wouldn't vote for him. There was just never a point in which he was the preeminent talent of the generation, nor were his teams generally competitive enough to create the proper legacy. I'm happy to leave it to others as to whether he belongs. If/when he makes it in, I'll cheer, and send my congratulations will no ill will.

What troubles me though is the position of some towards the Veterans Committee. Look, here's my take on them. By the time a candidate gets to them, those players have had a lot of chances to make a compelling argument for their candidacy. The baseball writers are responsible for selecting Hall of Fame inductees, and I don't think it's their province to overrule them unless there is significant argument to do so. The VC not voting players in perhaps speaks to the candidate being as un-compelling in their eyes as they were to the writers.

I look for them instead to be a backstop to correct blatant injustices in the process; for those who have truly fell through the cracks, perhaps unfairly snubbed by the writers for personality or other issues.

You know, in another few years, the VC will probably have to correct some of those injustices that I’ve suggested, voting players in who were “victims” of the Steroid Era. Some of those guys are going to get lumped in unfairly by writers, and the VC will have to make some of those cases right. Or guys who the media just didn't like, and they lose some votes because of it. I'm sure you can think of a few guys that are likely worthy, but that might get "punished" by the press down the road.

I'm troubled by the fact that they've voted so few players in, but I keep coming back to the thought that for the most part, if these guys were such clear-cut candidates, they wouldn't be sitting with the Veteran's Committee in the first place. Some have called for their disbandment; personally instead I might like to see all the players lumped on a ballot, and the top vote-getter for each year gets in, with no player on the ballot for more than three years. Just an idea.

Greg Maddux

I remember watching him get tagged on a cold, nasty day in 1986, and thinking to myself "there's no way this guy is going to make it with that fastball". HA!! Thanks for the memories Greg.

Ten Things I Think I Think:Thanks Atlanta

Damen Jackson — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 17:28:00 GMT

Filed:December 5th, 2008

Atlanta Braves (Cubbie Nation/File)

Frank Wren just went to the top of my favorite GMs list.

First, he quickly excavated himself from the prolonged Jake Peavy discussion, rather than compromise organizational philosophy and lose top assets. Now, he makes my week with a mini-megatrade, with the Sox sending Javier Vasquez to the Braves, in exchange for a bunch of talent that Atlanta really wasn't all that interested in. I love it.

Call me a fan of the trade as well, if only because I don't have to listen to Ozzie Guillen and the Chicago media whip on Javy like he's got a tail anymore. Personally, I think general manager Kenny Williams is still miffed about giving up Chris Young for him, but hey, those are the breaks. Vasquez has always struck me as ridiculously overrated though. The stats are there, but he's never been the guy to give the ball too when you had to get a win. Ever. Yet, he gets paid like it, the media mostly treats him that way, and GMs continue to drool -- at least until they spend a few seasons with him. Even Bobby Cox had this to say:

"I consider Javy [Vazquez] to be an elite pitcher. His stuff is way above average and he's a great athlete. ... I think it's a tremendous deal for the Braves to have Javy in our uniform."

To paraphrase Treebeard, "A manager should know better!!" Vasquez is who he is; a strong innings-eater, who will never be the centerpiece of a staff.

In return though, they got a true Kenny Williams player back in Tyler Flowers. A big-butted, strong, lumbering basher who should rocket balls out of US Cellular with regularity, and as early as in 2010. From the scouting reports, he probably will never see a day at catcher, but with both the Konerko and Thome contracts expiring in less than two seasons, he could be a real fixture at first base. All in all, I like it both teams -- albeit with the slight edge to Atlanta.

And for the record, I'm starting to get really excited about the Braves in 2009. If they can land A.J. Burnett as rumored, I'd certainly consider them the NL East frontrunners for next season.

Meanwhile, in an example of how not to compose a team, the Giants committed almost 20 million to a well-into-decline-phase Edgar Renteria, signing him to a two-year deal. This after paying 3 million to sign Bob Howry earlier in the week.

I think you have to at least have a patch of grey hair just to get GM Brian Sabean to take your agent's call. I mean, I sort of get it. Some guys just aren't meant for the American League, and I'd say that Edgar is at the top of that list. So, I'm confident that he'll bounce back offensively somewhat in 2009. But his defense really has been as bad as they say, and hitting him in the two-hole seems overly optimistic. He is an upgrade, but at these prices, it's just robbery.

The funny thing is, the Giants are quietly putting themselves into a position to be competitive in 2009. The NL West is starting to look pretty watered down for next season, and if they can get a little more offense, and Howry bounces back in the bullpen, they should be in the mix.

Back in Chicago with the Cubs though, everyone is waiting breathlessly for the consumation of the Jake Peavy deal. I'm making this a Peavy free post however, because frankly 1) I now think it will actually happen, and 2) I'm still hoping it won't.

Speaking of pitching, Paul Sullivan thinks that Chad Gaudin is a non-tender candidate. And this is why I avoid Paul Sullivan. Putting aside the question of why a major-market team would non-tender a decent swingman as opposed to say, trading him -- I mean we're talking about a few million bucks here for a fifth starter option -- it flies somewhat at odds with Lou Piniella's public comments to date.

From the right side, we picked up Gregg from the Marlins, but we're going to have to have a guy like (Chad) Gaudin pitch well for us. And (Kevin) Hart, (Angel) Guzman ... we're going to have some young people that are going to have to come through for us, too."

Me thinks he stays; at least until the Cubs hammer out their starting rotation question marks.

Chad Fox signs a minor-league deal this week; again. Enough already. I understand why the club did it, but I've had to endure two Chad Fox tenures in Chicago, and I'm convinced that his shoulder is now held together by stickum and scotchtape. Couldn't you just have offered him a roving instructor job instead? He's 36, you know. I lay odds at 50-50 that his arm literally falls off in Spring Training.

And let's not forget VERY old pitchers, and give Comcast analyst Dan Plesac a proper sendoff. He's taking a position with MLB Network, and I'm sure that he'll be fantastic. Dan arrived at Comcast in 2004, and has proven himself over the last few years to be one of the brighter analysts in baseball, in my opinion. I know I'm crossing sports here, but you need only look at his work as opposed to say, Jerry Azumah for Bears football with the same network to see the difference. Best wishes Dan.

Meanwhile, what I think is the one of the more interesting developments this week is the Yankees declining arbitration to Bobby Abreu, which was almost as certain as Christmas just a month ago. Yo'all know I'm a fan, although I acknowledged that the likelihood of he and the Cubs being a match was remote. However with a declining market, I sense that closers and corner outfielders are the ones who are really going to feel the burn. At 12-16 million per, I'd say keep on looking, Jim Hendry. But if the price starts dropping into the 8-10 range, or heaven forbid he'd agree to a one-year deal to let the market reset, well...

Lastly, this week brought news that Henry Blanco's brother died, a victim of a botched kidnapping attempt. My condolences and thoughts are with the Blanco family. Kidnapping has been something of a cottage industry in parts of South America for years now, and I've joked with visiting friends about the merits of a bodyguard while visiting there in the past. The fact is, it's not funny, and the danger to South American players and their families is unfortunately all too real. They're way too visible, well-known, and rich -- relative to the remaining population -- for them in many cases to genuinely be safe. I was horrified at the kidnapping of Ugeuth Urbina's mother a few years ago, and I thought that was the worst. I was wrong. May Carlos rest in peace.

Bye Kerry, Part II...

Damen Jackson — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 20:16:00 GMT

Kerry Wood(Cubbie Nation/File)

Filed:December 2nd, 2008

Well, I guess now we can move on.

Arbitration passed last night at 11:00 PM, and with it any hope of Kerry Wood remaining a Cub in 2009. The club refused arbitration to all of of their free agents, including Kerry, who now faces an extremely uncertain future, given a sudden flood of available closers, and a worse than expected economic downturn.

I know, I know. Some people will say that there is still negotiating room there, with the Cubs able to work a deal out on the cheap, once the market officially bottoms. Don't buy it. There's no nice way to say it, but Wood just isn't wanted. Everyone involved has been a bit tight-lipped to date, understandably so given that Wood likely saw arbitration as a last possible means of being retained.

However, now that that deadline has passed, I expect that some of the more aggressive Lou bashers in the media should either be able to extract an interesting tidbit or two, if not the full story altogether. My suspicion? He just wasn't a Lou guy, and Lou told Hendry as such. Kerry seemed extremely amenable to staying, Hendry seemed way too fond of him, the Kevin Gregg trade seem so prepackaged and arranged, and declining arbitration -- while potentially losing picks that a badly drained farm system could use -- for me to think otherwise. It all just speaks volumes.

One thing that has struck me about the Piniella tenure in Chicago is his desire to ride his favorite arms. HARD. Maybe it's a carryover for all those Torres, Leylands, and Piniellas of baseball who came up in the sixties and early seventies, when situational relievers just didn't exist. They've adapted some, but now they drop two or three of their guys in the pen, give them the ball when needed, and short of their arms' falling off, keep on doing it. You can't do that with Kerry.

Keeping Kerry Wood healthy is tricky. You have to watch pitch counts, meter the days that you throw him back to back. You probably can never use him three straight days. Hell, you even have to watch how often -- and for how long -- you can have him warming up in a game. And a month with a blister? I'm not saying it went down like this, but when I start thinking about moments at the park this season, I can start to get a picture of where those mysterious "factions" in the organization might want to move on.

Maybe we'll find that the Cubs, faced with a eight million plus allocation to Wood in 2009, just wanted to take the money and use it elsewhere. They are on a budget, after all. But this whole thing stinks, and frankly it has the stench of a classic Piniella vote of no confidence.

But hey, if you want some good news, the Mariners have offered Raul Ibanez arbitration. The potential loss of a first-round pick should be enough to make the Cubs think twice about sticking him in right field.

The case for Jim Edmonds

Damen Jackson — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 16:32:00 GMT

Filed:December 1st, 2008

Jim Edmonds (Cubbie Nation/File)

I received a very interesting e-mail from a reader last night, asking for support from Cubbie Nation in campaigning for the return of Jim Edmonds. You know, my first reaction was to chuck it off, and respond back to him privately when I had a quiet moment. However, after thinking about it a bit more, I wanted to add a couple of thoughts, and perhaps discuss it a bit more publicly.

The short answer is yes Pat, you're a little crazy; for a couple of different reasons. Problem number one is that he doesn't fit the bill for what the Cubs want to do in 2009, and for however much we know -- or think we know -- about baseball, the Cubs have decided it's best to move on, and we have to accept that.

Don't get me wrong, everybody likes Jim, at least from what I've heard. Well, maybe not some fans, but that's a different story. But the Cubs have two left-handed solutions for center field in Felix Pie and Kosuke Fukudome, and a desire to get younger and more athletic in general. Both of these things combined put an Edmonds signing ridiculously at odds with reality. Now, I personally think that Felix Pie is on his way out the door, but there's a 42 million dollar commitment to Fukudome that can't be ignored, so he's not going anywhere.

And that's really what's best for 2009. Pair Kosuke up with a reliable platoon partner in Reed Johnson in center field to start the season, rest him a few days a week, and hope that you can hide that .800 OPS -- we hope -- in center a bit better than they could in right.

Now, I suppose that you could make the argument that there is some benefit in leaving Kosuke in right, resigning Edmonds, and shifting Johnson to right a bit more often in platoon. However, defensively that's a bit more a liability than finding the younger, athletic right fielder that the Cubs are looking for. And it still doesn't address the problem of Edmonds himself.

See, the Cubs caught lightning in a bottle in 08; not only able to put Edmonds into an almost perfect situation on the field, but getting him cheaply to boot. However, this off-season, as a reasonably productive left-handed bat, I'd look for him to slot in around 40% of the contract that Adam Dunn ultimately gets. Right now, that looks like about four million for next season; maybe six. Not too rich, but probably a bit more than the Cubs would prefer to spend.

Further, if there was one free agent that I'd be worried about showing strong decline next year, it would be Edmonds. When he came to the Cubs last year, he was a hot mess. Still on the mend from his calf injury, his bat was slow, he couldn't make contact, and there was no ability to drive the ball. Gerald Perry really smoothed him out, but in something of an odd way. They eliminated his stride at the plate altogether, allowing Jim to wait back longer on fastballs, but at the expense of natural power generation. It's all core and arms; no lower body.

Now, maybe you can get a few good months out of that approach, and maybe a bit longer with a good platoon. However, I don't think that this approach is sustainable, particularly as he further ages. You saw some of what I mean toward the end of last season, when Edmonds was unavailable for stretches. Maybe he'll adjust to get more lower-body power, but I expect pitchers to adjust, too. I haven't rang any of my favorite sabermetricians lately on it, but if I had to make an educated guess, I'd project him at about .255/.355/.460 for next season. Not bad, but not worth the cost if you're the Cubs. You can probably get that OPS from Fukudome in center, and maybe even from Pie. Better to go looking for someone younger and more versatile to give Lou some options. Guys like Luke Scott, Jeremy Hermida, and Ryan Church are some prime examples. Even Mark Teahen, who in a smaller park, and facing lesser NL power pitchers, could very well be that '09 Jim Edmonds. And let's not forget that these guys are likely cost neutral, as you could exchange some of the Cubs arbitration-eligible talent for them.

Sorry man, it's probably not what you wanted to hear. But hey, maybe Edmonds cost bottoms out, or the Cubs preferred options fade, and the conversations are re-ignited. Past that though, the best that I can offer to Edmonds is a hearty thanks for a great 2008 season.

Ten Things I Think I Think: Let the Frenzy Begin

Damen Jackson — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:08:00 GMT

Filed:November 19th, 2008

(Jeff Roberson/AP)

Finally.

I take a few days to take care of business, and all sorts of hell break loose. The good news I guess is that my work blitz has finally passed, the school quarter is over, and there is plenty going on in Cubbie Nation to make things interesting. Let's get to it.

Mark Cuban.

Had to start there. With insider trading charges brought by the SEC Monday, I'd say that his bid to purchase the Cubs has unofficially officially come to an end. Now, I completely understand the nature of the charges, having worked in finance for some time. So, I understand that there likely won't be perp walks, scandal-ridden snippets, or major headlines with this outside of regional coverage, and business journals. However, this guy just can't stay out of the news, which must drive the owners of the NBA and MLB crazy.

With a new owner to be voted on as soon as December, this is terrible timing, and his announcement that he'll fight the charges -- over what amounts to a few million in fines and confiscation of gains -- is nuts. No, the charges won't do him in. But the fresh reminder to owners that in a group who not only handles their marketing and media relations poorly, but seems to have a genuine disdain for it, that this guy can't keep out the press, will.

I actually did an in-depth interview with the local ABC affiliate for reaction to the charges Monday. Piece of advice for bloggers: it's a whole other world doing TV. Playing pundit in front of a video camera will make you rethink why the hell you're doing this, especially if you're not getting paid.

Meanwhile though, Ryan Dempster was completing his rags-to-riches story, inking a 52 million dollar -- not including incentives -- deal to remain with the Cubs. Weird. As recently as a year ago, I talked to fans who would have traded him for a decent middle infielder, and a used rake. Now, we're sighing in relief that we've the right to pay him 15 million per. You know my feelings; it's more cash than I would have liked to commit to him. But the Cubs stayed away from a fifth year, and some of the amateur sabermetricians that I've chatted with think that with inflation, and the assumption of slightly above-average performance, that this looks like a good deal for the Cubs in a year or two. I'll take their word for it -- for now -- but I can't help feeling like spending that money on offers to Randy Johnson and Bobby Abreu would have been a better bet. Just saying.

And, this has to be my quote of the year:

''Maybe we underestimated how prepared you have to be, how ready you have to be, especially in a five-game series.

Game 1 pitcher Ryan Dempster said Tuesday after signing a four-year contract to return to the Cubs.

Really, you think those bush league lineups that you were going with for the last 10 days of the season may have softened you a bit? I'm shocked. Shocked.

Mark Teahen? Really? I generally give Jim Hendry a pass on evaluating talent at the major-league level. He does a real nice job there in finding diamonds in the rough, but Teahen? Let me make a suggestion. The next time that Hendry has Drayton Moore in a room talking trade -- like he reportedly did at the GM meetings -- turn out the lights, and beat Moore silly until he agrees to trade David DeJesus. Leaving a platoon in right instead of center, and letting DeJesus take that job full-time wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

Of course, I have to ask why we're considering trading for him at all, given that he's at the top of the non-tender candidate list, now that the Royals have brought Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs into the fold. That's quite a bit of money to absorb for a small-market team. I hope we find a better option, but if not let's at least wait till the non-tender deadline passes to see if the Royals blink.

One thing that hasn't changed though are the Peavy rumors. I honestly can't stop laughing. I can't think of anyone who has handled negotiations worse in recent memory that Kevin Towers. Atlanta is out, and reportedly looking at Lowe. How you let them walk away from the table, I've no idea. The Cubs look set with starters, making Peavy a very rich luxury. You don't want to deal with the Dodgers, and they're reported looking elsewhere anyway. What happens now? Any place that you send Peavy has that team likely having to open the purse strings to redo his deal; at least picking up his option, and maybe taking on years. And that reduces what those teams offer back to you in value. The Padres would do well to get the Braves back on the phone before they do a deal that makes the Santana trade looks like a massive haul.

Although, with Dempster in the fold, I would not be opposed to dangling Rich Harden, and flipping the prospects for Peavy. I keep looking at Aaron Heilman and Ryan Church in New York, and wondering if he might be that young pitcher the Padres are looking for. Bigger parks out west, less pressure, and a legitimate chance to start. And it's not like Harden isn't a massive upgrade for the Mets. Just a thought.

Kerry Wood says that he would have considered coming back to the Cubs on a one-year deal. Me thinks Kerry is spinning his butt off, but now I'm REALLY curious to see whether they offer him arbitration. Any chance at all that he put that out there to spook the Cubs into not? Sure would make him alot more attractive on the free agent market if teams didn't have to worry about giving up a draft pick.

Oh, and the Cubs will be opening the New Yankee Stadium. Consider me very, very excited. I'm working on getting tickets as we speak.

Bye Kerry...

Damen Jackson — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 20:24:00 GMT

Filed:November 14th, 2008

Kerry Wood (Cubbie Nation/File)

Well, apparently it's going to be more painful than I thought.

A couple of days ago in writing this piece -- which was originally strictly about MLB's Free Agent Frenzy -- I'd predicted that the fourth year of a new contract was going to be a hell of a sticking point between the Cubs and Wood. Technically, the market wil bear it, no sensible Cubs GM would ever offer it, and someone was going to have to break, lest Wood walk.

Well, that's pretty much the score, with Cubs GM Jim Hendry announcing yesterday that Wood will not be returning to the ballclub in 09.

Hendry sums it up:

"Honestly, we feel for his own good, and for the good of him and his family, there is going to be a longer and more lucrative deal somewhere else than there would be here now. And it would be unfair to keep it dangling for another month or so and say, 'Let's see where the ownership situation is going, let's see what happens if we don't do this, we may do that.'"

In a countermove, the Cubs then sent AA pitcher Jose Ceda to the Florida Marlins for resident closer Kevin Gregg. Gregg has found new life over the last few seasons in the NL, turning himself into a reasonably effective reliever, and a reasonable closing alternative in the event that Carlos Marmol, who appears to be the closer-in-waiting, comes up lame.

Now, regular readers of this blog know already that you'll have to look elsewhere for nostalgia, and talk about Kerry Wood somehow staying because he was a "good guy". It's no diferent than what was discussed in a recent TTITIT piece. Walk away. Just walk away. I'm proud of the Cubs for two reasons this morning; that this is a sign of breaking away from a bad tradition of signing past-their-prime players to inflated deals, and watching them blow up, and that there is a capable farmhand in the organization ready to take a veterans' place.

And say what you will, but Hendry moved flawlessly in my opinion, snagging a solid closer candidate for minimal cost, and one year term. This still leaves him with money to pursue Ryan Dempster, and perhaps find a decent right field bat. I like Jose Ceda, but there are so many problems with him that I don't know where to begin. Not the least of which is it was likely that he'd make only a minimal contribution to the 09 ball club, if at all. This is a Lou Piniella team, after all. I'd always had looked for Ceda to be a fixture; just starting in 2010.There was a reason he'd been dangled as trade bait the last few months.

So, to Kerry I say thanks for the memories, and I hope you get your coin. Seriously. To Jim Hendry, thanks for finally acting like a real talent evaluator. Kevin Gregg, welcome to Chicago. You're the next Bob Howry, so don't become the next Bob Howry. And Ceda...well, I don't think you'll have the career that will justify so many being breathless about you leaving, but you'll have the chance to prove me wrong as soon as next season. But that's the point, isn't it? That veterans move on, and in baseball, youth ultimately is always served.

Free Agent Frenzy

Barry Zito (Cubbie Nation/File)

And with that, below are my picks for the 2008 Free Agent Frenzy contest. These were made two days ago, and I'm going to leave Kerry Wood as entered originally. See, I'm a little sentimental.

1) Bobby Abreu – Mets (13) – A major impact bat, and still a strong base-stealing threat. I’d love to see him in Chicago, but there are potentially two suitors in his preferred location of New York, and I think he’ll take a discount to play LF with the Mets rather than move.

2) Milton Bradley – Mariners (1) – M's need offense, and he’s productive, without the long-term commitments. It’s a good bridge choice.

3) A. J. Burnett – Orioles (9) – Once they realize that the big guys actually want to play for a contender, I expect them to start focusing on A.J. At potentially a 4/60, he’ll be the anchor that the Orioles need.

4) Pat Burrell – Giants (3) – Should follow his heart, but I suspect he’ll follow the cash. He ends up with the Giants, and they’ll at least be back to respectable next season.

5) Ryan Dempster – Mets (4) – At 5/75, he won’t be in Chicago, for certain. New York will pay, and regret it more than the deal they gave Pedro.

6) Adam Dunn – Nationals (14) -- Honestly, stick him in left until you can trade Nick Johnson, and bake.

7) Rafael Furcal – Dodgers (2) -- My sense it that no one will commit to the years that he’d like. If the rumors of 2/30 offer from the Dodgers is true, what’s the point of leaving LA then?

8) Derek Lowe – Cubs (6) – He’ll get 40-45 million offer that Dempster should be getting, and probably perform just as well at Wrigley.

9) Oliver Perez – Brewers (5) – CC staying? I’m not buying it. Oliver is a good, affordable plan B.

10) Manny Ramirez – Yankees (12) – Hank Steinbrenner won’t be able to resist the marquee name. Stick him at DH, and watch the money roll in from Red Sox/Yankees taken up a notch.

11) Francisco Rodriguez – Angels (8) – I think this is the year that reality sets in on relievers. 12 million for 60 innings of work? Not in the midst of this crisis.

12) CC Sabathia – Angels (11) – Loves California, and the Angels should be able to make a 120 million-plus offer without batting an eye. What’s to talk about?

13) Ben Sheets – Dodgers (7) – Should know better after Jason Schimdt, but I don’t think they do.

14) Mark Teixeira – Yankees (10) – Won’t be able to say no to pinstripes. Manny and Teix. God help AL East pitchers next year.

15) Kerry Wood – Cubs (15) – The Cubs will be fair, and a deal will get done. They’ll fight like hell over a 4th year for awhile though.

**Alternate choice - Rangers

Bonus: Orlando Hudson – White Sox

Five moves the Cubs should make...but probably won't:Conclusion

Damen Jackson — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 22:43:00 GMT

Filed:November 13th, 2008

Jason Marquis (Cubbie Nation - File)

Retain Jason Marquis

Yeah, I said it. I've combed the rumors mills, headlines, scouting reports, and fan blogs to a length that I'm embarrassed to admit in search of a soft landing spot for Jason Marquis. Soft as in a good situation, with a trading partner willing to offer something that resembles a decent return. To the Mets for Duaner Sanchez. To the Rangers for Kameron Loe. Even to the Giants for Randy Winn. Well, a Winn swap makes sense, but that's another post. The fact is, I see the Cubs in virtually all instances having to eat about 2 million dollars to consummate a trade, and -- barring a surprise in the market or package deal -- I think he stays.Or at least should.

It's not that he's a terrible player, you know. He's just so...average. And average even would be fine, were it not for the ludicrous 3/21 contract that Jim Hendry gave Marquis before the 2007 season. Pretty hefty numbers for a guys coming off of a season that ended with him carrying a 6.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. But he did, leaving Cubbie Nation to wonder not only why the Cubs bid against themselves, but what could have been in improving the team with that payroll flexibilty back.

In reality though, maybe Jim had a little hindsight, given the insane contracts doled out to pitchers since. 20 million to Scott Linebrink, as a middle reliever? Kyle Lohse grabbing 40 million? Carlos Silva worth 50 million? Hell, even Ryan Dempster now thinks he's worth 75 million dollars. It's nuts. The market for pitching has deteriorated to the point where Juan Cruz may see a huge payday this offseason. If I thought that the Cubs could pluck from somewhere 200 innings of league-average work for less than 8 million to replace Jason with, I'd say move him. However, I don't. Maybe Bartolo Colon or Randy Wolf, but why chance it?

Fortunately, the good news is that now that Marquis has been seeing a sports psychologist to address his late-season debacles, he appears to be a bit more solid overall. And given that this is a contract season for him as well, I say hold. I suspect that with the Peavy deal probably being a smokescreen, and with Dempster and the Cubs at a contractual impasse, the team may actually need him.

Soto, Cuban, and the Cubs

Damen Jackson — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 16:59:00 GMT

2008 NL ROY Geovany Soto (Cubbie Nation/File)

Filed:November 12th, 2008

Fortunately, all surprises aren't this bad.

In the least surprising move of the 2008 season, Geovany Soto has been named the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year. I mean, when you're playing the most demanding position on the field, and doing it for a division winner, it pretty much breaks about every possible tie. For everyone keeping score, Geo is now the 5th Cubs to receive the honor, following Billy Williams, Ken Hubbs, Jerome Walton, and Kerry Wood. This is the 3rd Cubs ROY that I've personally seen play, and I have to say, he's more talented than the bunch. A big bat, good game caller, and the most fundamentally sound position player that the Cubs have grown on the farm since Brendan Harris. If they don't ask him to do too much, and allow him to grow naturally into a leadership role, this kid is going to be a star. Congratulations to Soto. Oh, and for those interested, the final voting tally is below.

2008 NL Rookie of the Year Voting

Player, Club                     Points
Geovany Soto, CHC         158
Joey Votto, CIN                  76
Jair Jurrjens, ATL               34
Edinson Volquez, CIN          9
Jay Bruce, CIN                     7
Kosuke Fukudome, CHC     4

Elsewhere, it appears that the stench of desperation has finally come over the Tribune, with requests for new offers for the purchase of the Cubs, and proof of ability to pay to be submitted by Thanksgiving. Numerous sources have reported it, but I figured I'd include the Tribune, so you can get it from the source.

Now, I've tried to discuss this as little as possible, but I feel almost compelled to, since it's becoming terribly apparent that bloggers and beat writers don't seem to actually know much about business. That's cool, but that lack of knowledge makes for some interesting writing, to be sure.

I don't think that many people realize that there is a difference between Sam Zell and the Tribune. Two different entities. Sam Zell is rich. Very rich, although market deterioration has eaten away much of that in the last year. Sam Zell can afford just about anything that he wants, and what he can't afford, someone will lend him the rest to get. The Tribune on the other hand is the corporate equivalent of a very poor cousin, living hand to mouth, and just a paycheck away from being homeless. It has no cash, no further access to credit, and its current creditors are incredibly skittish; more so now that rating agencies are calling its bond offerings less than investment grade. That's right, you can't even call them junk bonds; that would be an upgrade.

Know what a tranche is? You should go check. Seriously. The Tribune has over half a billion dollars due in debt service on their primary tranches within the next year, and currently no means to pay. None. Now, I suppose that they could start selling off papers to cover this, but that only eats into the long-term profitability of the company, and does significant damage to them with analysts, as they've held from the beginning that maintaining and improving the core paper business was critical to the turnaround plan. No, in reality, they must, must sell the Cubs; on schedule, and with the least amount of fuss possible. They simply cannot risk defaulting on those lines, and have those creditors start exercising covenants, which wouldn't even be the worst blowback from defaults coming to pass. It's simply not correct to suggest that Sam Zell will hold out, and fight owners over the highest bid, if need be. A couple hundred million either way on the sale is nothing compared to the hell that follows if they don't raise this cash. You might as well just close the doors the day after. The Tribune will sell the Cubs to the first person -- that MLB owners will accept -- that can raise about 600 million the quickest and easiest. Want to find out who is going to own the Cubs? Follow the money. If your favorite front-runner is cash-rich, or has the best access to cash, that's your guy. And for those who think that's Mark Cuban, think again, at least according to a recent Sun-Times piece:

Cuban has a colorful reputation and drinks beer in the stands with the fans, but the source said the credit drought has hurt his chances. "Whatever the price for the Cubs, he was only going to put in $100 million of his own money," the source said.

As if owners would even agree to sell one of their marquee franchises to an owner with that little skin in the game.

My point is, anyone who tells you that the sale of the Cubs will be delayed is simply wrong. It will be on time, orderly, and consistent with the wishes of MLB, and its owners. Even if that means them continuing to hold a stake -- at least temporarily -- until the market conditions improves. The Tribune Corp is simply not in the baseball business. It's in the media business, and the people they deal with only want to hear about the money. So, unless you start hearing that the LA Times may go up for sale, Zell has only one choice to raise half a billion bucks by May: Sale the Cubs. And quickly.

Five move the Cubs should make...but probably won't:Part IV

Damen Jackson — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 16:04:00 GMT

Atlanta Brave Kelly Johnson(Cubbie Nation/File)

Filed:November 9th, 2008

Ryan Theriot, Sean Marshall, and Jose Ceda to Atlanta for Kelly Johnson
(Subsequently shipped with Jordan Schafer to San Diego for Jake Peavy)

Pitching is not always king.

Reflecting over the Cubs team of the last few seasons -- and in particular the playoffs -- their problem is not pitching. It’s hitting, mostly. And to be perfectly honest, it’s a bit professionalism. The 2008 Cubs had a potent offense, capable pitching, and a reasonably strong defense, however when it came time to perform under the glare of a national spotlight, they faded. Again. Why?

1) There is nothing wrong with Alfonso Soriano as a lead-off man. Seriously. But when you have that sort of streaky ballplayer leading off, you are obligated to have a rock-solid professional hitter hitting behind him. And considering the Cubs righty-oriented middle of the order, preferably a left-handed one. The Cubs served up slap-hitting Ryan Theriot instead for most of the season in the two-hole, and in the ultimate indignity, even used Kosuke Fukudome there in the series against the Dodgers. Won’t work. At least not against the premier opponents.

2) Professionalism – There has long been anecdotal evidence that the Cubs refused to embrace advance scouting reports, and as they found themselves matched against more competitive teams, this was severely exploited. Additionally, pitchers have the book on Cubs hitters, and many have been very slow to make adjustments. Aramis Ramirez? Completely clutch. But when you start looking at players from last season: Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee, Jim Edmonds, and especially Soriano, you’ve got big-time players that end up looking outmatched. They haven’t forgotten how to hit, but they are not coming up to the plate prepared.

3) Terrible lineup composition. Everybody knows it, most especially manager Lou Piniella. The lack of lefties is killing this team!!! If you had any doubt, simply look to the 2008 NLDS, where the Dodgers could send in a late-inning righty, and they stayed in for multiple innings, and the Cubs had no strong lefties to make the opposing manager get situational. In May against the Pirates, it probably doesn’t matter. In the Fall against the cream of the league? You’re going to get abused. Brian Roberts would have fixed much of this, but short of a miracle happening, they’ll need to look elsewhere.

My point? For the Cubs, pitching isn’t your problem; your makeup is. So imagine my surprise as I’ve read and listened to the rumors of the Cubs involving themselves in a battle for the rights to Jake Peavy.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s an amazing talent, and certain to make almost any good team an immediate serious contender. That’s not the problem. What perplexes me is the 13 million or so annual commitment that he demands, and that’s assuming that you’re not required to tear up that contract in order to have Peavy waive his NTC. This solves any of the Cubs current issues…how?

Now, I’ve heard the rumors that starter Ryan Dempster is looking for a 5/75 deal, which I still can’t stop laughing about. So, I can see that if you’re a casual observer to the Cubs, the idea of replacing him with Jake for about the same cost makes some sense. However, if you look a bit closer, you’d see that the Cubs can still be a very competitive team without either, fielding a likely starting rotation of:

Zambrano
Lilly
Marquis
Harden
Gaudin/Samardzija/Hill/any 5th starter FA signing

It’s a good staff to start the season, and the Cubs could save the cash for potential pickups at the deadline. Oh, and for those lefty bats that they covet.

My suggestion? Get out of this nonsense, and move toward using this deal to pluck a real shortstop in Kelly Johnson. To those who don’t know, Kelly is an old shortstop, turned outfielder, turned second baseman. Reportedly, he was quite talented, but with guys like Rafael Furcal lurking around in the system, there was always a better talent at the position. Now, it’s understandable – given their long history of solid shortstops – that the Braves would move him out of that spot. However, for the Cubs, Kelly is both an upgrade at the shortstop position and a solution to a number of other problems with their ball club. Better range and arm than the incumbent. Left-handed bat. A legitimate top-of-the-order hitter. And a genuine professional from the Braves organization. Their prospects always come up knowing how to play the game right. Well, maybe not Wilson Betemit, but there is always an exception.

Further, by getting out of the Peavy deal, the Padres now have their hand forced, leaving them to deal with the Braves almost exclusively, which should keep the price down a bit.

So, let see: a major-league ready starter, a starting SS, a centerfield prospect, and a late-inning reliever for a guy with a NTC that’s he’s enforcing strongly enough to call the shots on this deal? Sounds about right to me. Everyone gets what they really need, and I think the Cubs get better in the process.

Five moves the Cubs should make...but probably won't:Part III

Damen Jackson — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 09:53:00 GMT

Ronny Cedeno - File (Cubbie Nation/File)

Filed:November 7th, 2008

Ronny Cedeno and Neal Cotts to Baltimore for George Sherrill

I can't stand a lunkhead.

During the course of the baseball season, I inevitably end up in at least two conversations a week about whether Cedeno is a good shortstop. Amateur sabermetricians and more defense-oriented fans love him, and can't figure out why he doesn't play more. Maybe you've seen him on TV, and wondered the same thing. But if you're watching 20-40 games a season at Wrigley like I do, we're generally in agreement on why that is; he's a lunkhead.

Whether it's his being prone to defensive guffaws at the worst possible moments, a total inability to effectively run the base paths, no comprehension of situational hitting, or slugger-like swing, he will do something in almost every game in which he appears that will leave you wondering why is he on a major league ballclub at all. Manager Lou Piniella gets it, even going so far as to make Mike Fontenot his primary infield backup, regardless of Cedeno's defensive talents.

Here's the good news though. There are 30 general managers in baseball. Numerous assistant GMs, player personnel directors, cross checkers, managers, hitting coaches, and infield instructors. In all, probably a few hundred guys -- and women -- in a position of influence around baseball. All it takes is a couple to think "we can fix this guy", and a player like Cedeno is in play.

The likeliest place for this to happen is Baltimore, where the shortstop solutions are possibly even worse than their starting pitching. No team in baseball is in more need of a upgrade at the position than the Orioles, who fielded the likes of Brandon Fahey, Freddie Bynum, and Alex Cintron there in 2008, with the expected terrible results. For the Orioles, Cedeno represents a real and tangible upgrade right now, with meaningful upside, as they are a place that can afford to give him a season-long assessment.

Now, I suppose that they could try and convince a bigger talent to sign with them via free agency, but in reality, they need to spend that money on infrastructure, and pitching. Lots and lots of pitching. And really, as they appear to be putting together a major Teixeira offer, and Brian Roberts extension, the cash is effectively spent. There's just no point in overpaying for Hudson or Furcal to join the club, which is what would likely need to happen to get a free agent to join a rebuilding team.

In return, the Cubs collective an effective -- albeit over and mis-used -- middle reliever. George Sherrill came over from the Mariners as part of that big Erik Bedard trade, and was thrust into the closer's role following injuries to Danys Baez and Chris Ray. He did a fantastic job overall, collecting 31 saves in 2008, and making the All-Star game. The reality though is that he's a closer in name and situation only, and as the season wore on, this reality eventually set in. Sherrill would finish the season with a 4.73 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP. It is the AL East, after all. However, he has always been able to get left-handed hitters out, and has blossomed into a legitimate set-up man, capable of retiring righties as well. Bottom line is that George is not a closer, and would be much more productive in his usual setup role. With a gaping hole left by the booting departure of Scott Eyre, and a very affordable price tag, I think Sherrill would be a welcome addition to the Cubs.

A full-time position player for a middle reliever? What do you think?

Five moves the Cubs should make...but probably won't:Part II

Damen Jackson — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 09:09:00 GMT

Filed:November 5th, 2008

Felix Pie and Nick Swisher (Cubbie Nation/File and AP)

Felix Pie and Michael Weurtz to the White Sox for Nick Swisher

It shouldn't have come to this really. Pie has long been the apple of the organization's eye, even going so far as to make his way onto the 2008 roster as the Opening Day starter. However, a terrible April quickly lead to his place in the Lou Piniella doghouse, and ultimately, a trip to the minors in May. Now, it wasn't so much that he didn't hit, as that doesn't really seem to be something Lou worries too much about in general. No, it was his approach at the plate, slowness in adopting coaching and instruction, and lack of batter's eye that did him in.

However, after making the September callups, we got to see a much more polished Felix, going .300/.391/.450 in September. Small sample size? Absolutely. However, it was seeing him take pitches, make adjustments, and seem more at ease around the ballpark that convinced me that he was adapting. And while I don't think that that this triple slash number is representative of his talents, I can certainly see him settling in somewhere in the .270/.340/.450 range as a pro.

Unfortunately for him though, he's out of time; or at least options. And the pronouncement that the Cubs were shopping for a power-hitting outfielder this off-season means that Kosuke Fukudome is likely headed out to center for a platoon with Reed Johnson, at least for 2008. Now, there might be some appeal to leaving Felix on the roster as a fifth outfielder to start the season, but it's my position that it can only devalue him in trade further. Kosuke Fukudome and his contract won't be leaving anytime soon, and so it's time for Felix to go.

And by go, we mean the Southside. Ozzie Guillen and the Sox have been looking for a strong centerfield solution for a few years now, with no one able to grab the ring, even going so far as to send Swisher out there for 70 games last season. That's desperate. Brian Anderson isn't the answer, and neither is Dewayne Wise. Jerry Owens? Even if his .700 OPS excited you, his situation is worse than Waiting for Godot. Move on. Kenny Williams recently stated that he's interested in taking the White Sox through a youth movement, and we agree. We just think he's got the wrong youth.

Now one might argue that a .219 average -- Swisher's 2008 average -- is not something worth trading for, and normally you'd be right. But Nick Swisher hasn't forgotten how to hit at age 27, as his 24 home runs last year can somewhat attest to. The combination of playing out of position, a new city, and chemistry hurt him in 2008, and he's likely to have a strong bounceback in 2009. But just as Felix is relegated to a 4th outfielder due to situations out of his control, Swisher is dealing with MVP candidates in the outfield, and an immoveable NTC at first.

With that, and a very affordable contract in 2009 and 2010, we think he's just the right part and personality to fit in with the Cubs in 2009. While some will likely consider the return of Jim Edmonds a more attractive alternative, we don't. Not at 12 years older, and likely a couple of million more in cost.

Bottom line, it's the perfect buy low strategy for both teams, with tremendous upside at each end. For the Cubs, you get a player likely to at least reproduce Edmond's 2008 numbers. For the Sox, a strong centerfield candidate under control for five-plus more years, and much needed bullpen help. It's a win-win.

Five moves the Cubs should make...but probably won't

Damen Jackson — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 00:41:00 GMT

2008 Chicago Cubs (Cubbie Nation/File)

Filed:November 5th, 2008

Welcome to the Hot Stove Season.

It officially kicks off this week, with the General Managers' meeting, and continues with the official opening of free agency November 13th. So far, some 100-plus players have filed for free agency, and even with less than ideal market conditions, most can expect to see significant interest and sizable pay increases in this wonderful world of baseball parity. Teams are flush, and the Wild Card makes every GM start getting delusions of grandeur, no matter what their actual situation.

And the Cubs? Well, not so much. Even their pocketbook has a limit, and as we transition out of the Zell/Tribune ownership into...well, whomever is going to own this thing with the Trib, management is putting a clamp on big contracts. Crane Kenney says general manager Jim Hendry will have the money to work though, even if he won't be able to drop another 50 million or so on his favorite free agent.

So, how then do you improve a team that won 97 games last season, without the benefit of being able to take on meaningful salary? And for that matter, do you want to try? Many have some ideas about that, and here at Cubbie Nation, we've got a few as well.

That said, over the next week we'll be bringing you a five-part series known as "Five moves the Cubs should make...but probably won't". We've scoured the free-agent roster, looked at who is currently out of favor with their current club, and considered at some depth what the hell is wrong with these Cubs. From this, we've determined five transactions that should take place to improve the 2009 Cubs, and hopefully make them a touch better in the postseason; assuming that they get back, of course. We think you'll enjoy it.

Check back often over the next week, and definitely drop us a note and tell us what you think.

2008 in Pictures

Damen Jackson — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 16:40:00 GMT

Filed:October 30th, 2008

Kosuke Fukudome and Reed Johnson celebrate a Cubs win (Cubbie Nation/File)

Click here for the 2008 in Pictures gallery

It's over.

With a fantastic 4-3 win over the Rays last night, baseball has found its king in the Philadelphia Phillies, and the 2008 season is officially drawn to a close.

While I most sincerely wish that we were looking at the Cubs celebrating instead right now, having spent some time in Philadelphia, and knowing some of their more polite fans, I'm extremely happy for them. It's been a incredibly maligned team for most of this decade. Pegged a classic and chronic underachievers, they finally found the right combination of players, and expectations fulfilled in guys like Pat "The Bat" Burrell to punch their ticket. Congratulations, even to Scott Eyre, who likely is having the last laugh on Lou right about now.

But this isn't about the Phillies. It's partly in that every other team and their fans are left to spend a long winter contemplating what might have been, and what could be for the next season. Countdowns to Spring Training have officially begun, the Hot Stove season is around the corner, and even the saddest of us will be forced to forget 2008 soon enough.

But there are three things that I learned covering the Cubs this season that I never quite knew before. First, the season ends much too soon and abruptly. Especially when expectations are not met. And yes, after success in the last few seasons, there are a lot more fans at the park who have expectations. Second, that you can't get photos that anyone really wants to look at from the outfield. Lesson learned.

Lastly, is that it takes everybody to make a successful team. And I mean everyone in the organization, and most certainly on the field. Some guys you'll remember for all your lives. Some only the hardcore fan will sort of remember. "Hey, remember Mike Fontenot and those homers that he was launching in 08?" And as free agency, harsh realities, and desires to upgrade set in, some guys are all but forgotten. Teams change. This one already has, with Casey McGehee waived. He was acquired by the Brewers yesterday.

These guys shouldn't be forgotten. And so in what I hope to be an annual piece at Cubbie Nation, I submit the 2008 team in pictures. I'm pretty sure that we've included any and all who made an appearance with the Cubs this season, and the coaching staff. It was a great season, one of the best in Cubs history; even if it ended so poorly. I hope you find that I've done them justice.

Ten Things I Think I Think; Lunatic Fringe Edition

Damen Jackson — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 15:00:00 GMT

Filed:October 27th, 2008

Adrian Gonzalez (Cubbie Nation/File)

It may be a touch premature, but I'm preparing a big thank you for my Philly friends the next time I'm in town. After watching MLB playoffs the last five years that featured: the Cubs meltdown in 2003; the Red Sox removing their curse in 2004; the White Sox in 2005, and 83 win Cardinals teaming winning in 2006, and the Red Sox doing it once more for good measure in 2007, my dignity can/could not suffer the Tampa Bay Devil Rays winning in 2008. Eleven years in existence -- all losing seasons before 2008 -- and a championship? Well, after last night's Phillies 10-2 win, I think I can put my search for a gas oven to stick my head in to rest.

It's disappointing though, in all seriousness. My initials thought was that the Rays would take momentum, couple it with home field and a too young to know better mentality, and take advantage of a Philadelphia pitching staff that gets a bit shaky past Hamels, Myers, and Lidge. What we're seeing instead is a team melting down quickly. Too many errors, a completely shutdown middle of the order for Tampa, and just some bad luck have them down 3-1 and on the verge of giving the Phillies their first championship in nearly 30 years. Somewhere Ed Wade has got to be shaking his head, and wondering "Why couldn't they do this for me?"

Back in Cubdom

I generally try to leave the mainstream media and their journalists alone; I mean really, it's just piling on. Put someone passed me this recent article by Phil Rogers over at the Tribune. Wow. I'm actually embarrassed for him. Now believe it or not, I'm one of the few who think that the Cubs could land Jake Peavy, assuming that they would part with Carlos Marmol and Jeff Samardzija, if only because Peavy calls the shots with trade destinations. But for those of you who don't know, owner John Moores is shedding assets, having found himself in the middle of a divorce which will force him to sell a 49% stake in the Fathers. Hell, the Peavy trade talk is mostly centered around the cash-strapped Padres relieving themselves of the roughly 60 million owed to him over the next four years. So explain to me why the Padres would have any interest in trading Adrian Gonzalez -- owed a little over a million for the next two years -- for a 26 million dollar Lee contract over that same time. The same Lee who is older, arguably a worse player at this stage of his career, and likely to see his power numbers decline further playing in Petco. Oh, and the Padres would probably command a kings ransom dangling Gonzalez out there as a power alternative to Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira this off-season. Yes Phil, you're officially the newest member of the lunatic fringe.

Honestly, Derrek Lee should go. But the much more likely scenario if it happened would be a shift of Mark DeRosa to 1st, and pursuing a Rafael Furcal or Orlando Hudson, rather than dumping a bloated contract on a team in exchange for one of the premier power hitters in the game.

It is good to see a GM with more sense than money for a change however, as Frank Wren states publicly that the Braves won't part with their top prospects for Peavy. Rumor has it a one point the discussion was centered around Tommy Hanson, Yunel Escobar, AND Kelly Johnson. That's quite a haul, and that's before the dollars are considered, which seem a bit pricey for the Braves. I see the logic in parting with both of the infielders, with replacements in the wings by the 2010 season at latest. But Hanson should be considered untouchable, and it's refreshing to see a GM a touch realistic about where his club is actually at.

And speaking of power, Aramis Ramirez winning the Hank Aaron award? Really? No Howard, Wright, Berkman, Pujols, or Manny? I think it's time to put fan voting on the backburner for awhile.

Congratulations to Pat Listach, added to the Washington Nationals staff as third base coach last week. Pat by all indications is an excellent managerial talent, and on the fast track to a manager's job in the pros. I'd look for him to be on the short-list for some team as early as 2010.

Interestingly, Jim Riggleman and Marquis Grissom have been added to the staff as well. What happens if you have three or more ex-Cubs as coaches?

My favorite news of the week has to be word that the Cubs may open the new Yankee Stadium in a series of exhibition games, which sounds fantastic. The teams are still in negotiation to make this happen, and I do have some concern about an already crowded spring schedule, with the WBC upcoming. However, there is something so inherently cool about the tradition and classics of the old, meeting the cutting edge and advanced new. Do it.

From his mouth to God's ear: Lou Piniella got a very nice shout out from the New York Times, confirming in print what I think many of us knew. They go on to state:

Piniella said the Cubs' main agenda these next few weeks will be to re-sign pending free agents Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood and explore trade options for lefthanded hitting and bullpen help. He also said he plans to move Kosuke Fukudome, the Cubs' $48 million Japanese import whose second-half slump exasperated the manager, to center field as part of a platoon with Reed Johnson.

Sounds about right. There's an upcoming series that we'll be running here shortly that will elaborate, but there is a name that I keep coming back to. Nick Swisher.

And I think this just confirmed that someone will be leaving town. Felix Pie, we hardly knew ya.

Jim Hendry extension; Four more years! Four more years!

Damen Jackson — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:01:00 GMT

Filed: October 20th, 2008

In what is the worst surprise of the month, given last week's news of the Cubs refusal to allow the Mariners to interview him, numerous media outlets are reporting that Jim Hendry has agreed to and signed a four-year extension to continue as GM of the Cubs.

While I have generally viewed Jim Hendry as only a better-than-average general manager during his tenure in Chicago, I think this is a good think. In my mind, continuity is key to a successful franchise, first and foremost. And for his questionable evaluation and development of organizational talent, he has done well since leaving Andy McPhail's shadow in creating and executing a plan for the rise of the Cubs. Back-to-back winning seasons, shrewd free-agent signings, and tirelessly working to make Chicago a premier baseball destination for fans and free agents alike that it should have been all along rank high with me.

However, what probably is most interesting is that with Lou Piniella likely not managing past 2010, he'll certainly have a say in the hiring of the new manager, which suggests that he has the full support of the potential buyers of the Cubs. Although there has been some talk of the potential sale being delayed, it should still be completed sometime in 2009, given the sizeable upcoming debt service payments the Tribune needs to make. That said, it's difficult to imagine that they bidders were not consulted before granting this extension.

Love him or hate him, Hendry looks to be here to stay. And given that this is another strong signal by the Cubs making a commitment to winning for the foreseeable future, I think it's a good thing.

Ten Things I Think I Think: Let's move on....

Damen Jackson — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 01:38:00 GMT

Filed: October 10th, 2008

Sigh. I'm over it.

And yes, I pretty much needed the entire week away to detox myself of the debacle that was the 2008 NLDS. It doesn't help though being in Philly for the week, where the fans are positively giddy. Even quite a few out-of-towners at my hotel are sporting Phillies gear. Given that with them up in the NLCS 2-0 after the 8-5 win tonight, the Dodgers are likely to be headed home soon, so you can see why my spirits have improved enough to blog. Call me a touch jaded, but I can really do without the MSM -- that especially means you ESPN -- beating us with Manny back to Boston stories for 10 days during the World Series. Yes, I think Boston will get there.

I will say the week has been interesting though. I said to a fan during Game 2 last week that after leaving in Kosuke Fukudome to face Cory Wade -- he struck out -- that this was the moment that Chicago would begin to turn on Lou. It didn't take long. Local media types have been calling out Lou like a dog. For some reason, Dave Kaplan seems to almost have a fetish over the topic, saying on numerous occasions that Lou can't control a clubhouse.

Let me tell you what I think about that. The last times that the Cubs won back-to-back anything was 100 years ago. Since then, they've been wildly inconsistent, not acheiving long-term success, and moving in a reactive mode; generally when the team became so poor that it affected tickets sales and TV audiences. Lou Piniella took a team that was on the verge of losing 100 games the year before, and took them to a division title the very next year. And to a team on the verge of winning 100 inside of two. He's got his senior moments, no question. And personally you know my feelings about some of the moves made during the playoffs. However, whatever problems that the Cubs have are not on Lou. He doesn't catch, he doesn't throw, and he doesn't field. And most of these players are not his guys. He's making the most of the talent he's given and what assets the organization has. And like every manager or coach in pro sports today, has to suffer divas and prima donnas to get the best out of some guys. Ease up. There's a couple in every clubhouse.

It takes time to build not just a winner, but a champion. Ask the Red Sox, who hammered away with good teams against the Yankees for years. Or the Yankees themselves, who searched most of the 90's before finding the right note. The Phillie have been on the verge for years, and look primed to make finally their splash this year. With most of their talent locked up, and Crane Kenney acknowledging not only a commitment to winning next season, but approval for a payroll increase, the Cubs looked primed to make another run. And someone is going to have to cite more than an over-emotional and flaky since birth Carlos Zambrano, and a diva Alfonso Soriano in the clubhouse to convince me that Lou isn't the guy anymore to lead them.

That said, I will share a few do and don't that I hope happen this off-season. The team is close. And a couple of tweaks could make the difference.

Do resign Reed Johnson and Henry Blanco. I know that a 3 million dollar option seems like a bit of a luxury for a backup catcher. Renegotiate if you can, and if not, pick it up anyway. You're a large market team. That's Latin for luxury.

Do resign Bob Howry -- assuming he'll accept an incentive-laden deal. My first reaction after an abysmal 2008 campaign for Howry --5.35 ERA, with 1.45 WHIP -- is to run away screaming when his agent calls. But Bob on a one year, under 1.5 million deal sounds intriguing. If he doesn't work out, you've got this year's Chad Fox. If he does, you've got an affordably priced effective middle reliever, with closing experience. It's not as if they have a rock-solid middle inning solution at the moment.

Do say goodbye to Michael Wuertz and Neal Cotts. Can't. Be. Counted. On. Ever.

Don't keep Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood if cost too much. I love them both. But anything more than 2 year with an option for Woods, or 40 million for Dempster is just nuts. Ryan Dempster was effective this season only because of his level of preparation and conditioning; his words. 40 million bucks has a funny way of making guys stop answering the phone when their personal trainers call. Thank them for their service, offer them arbitration, take the picks, and move on.

Don't get sucked into Raul Ibanez. I'm a HUGE Raul fan, if only for the cool-ass name. But he's a soon-to-be 37 year old, who has always been choppy defensively in left. The notion of moving him to right is mind boggling.

Do find another lefty bat. Orlando Hudson, Bobby Abreu, Brian Roberts, Rafeal Furcal, Jeremy Hermida, Nick Swisher, and Luke Scott are all viable targets. Face it, you've been exposed. Playoff teams will extend their late-inning guy an extra inning, and wear your righty lineup out, as you got no LH punch to break it up, or a lefty off the bench potent enough to make opposing managers get situational. It's straight from a top-tier starter to great late-inning relievers. If you're lucky, you can get three lefties in your everyday lineup. Worst case, you can get a big lefty bat for the bench. And yes, that means goodbye Daryle Ward.

Do drop Derrek Lee in the lineup. It's just time.

Jerremy Affedlt or Damaso Marte. Pick one.

Do trade Felix Pie. Felix is out of options, and the Cubs are out of excuses. I love what I saw of him in September, looking more comfortable around the ballpark, and selective at the plate. However, Kosuke is a problem. Ideally, you'd move DeRosa to right, Kosuke to center field, and go get Brian Roberts. Or you'd get a new RF, and suffer the same dilemma. Any deal that was made with Kosuke to play right was lost when he couldn't hit his weight. If/when he hits next year, you've got a nice platoon. If he doesn't, he's your fourth outfielder. If he really hits, you can move DeRosa to a more natural super-sub role. It works. Point being, are you really prepared to have two lefties on the roster with hitting issues?

Food for thought. Till next time.