Filed:November 19th, 2008
(Jeff Roberson/AP)
Finally.
I take a few days to take care of business, and all sorts of hell break loose. The good news I guess is that my work blitz has finally passed, the school quarter is over, and there is plenty going on in Cubbie Nation to make things interesting. Let's get to it.
Mark Cuban.
Had to start there. With insider trading charges brought by the SEC Monday, I'd say that his bid to purchase the Cubs has unofficially officially come to an end. Now, I completely understand the nature of the charges, having worked in finance for some time. So, I understand that there likely won't be perp walks, scandal-ridden snippets, or major headlines with this outside of regional coverage, and business journals. However, this guy just can't stay out of the news, which must drive the owners of the NBA and MLB crazy.
With a new owner to be voted on as soon as December, this is terrible timing, and his announcement that he'll fight the charges -- over what amounts to a few million in fines and confiscation of gains -- is nuts. No, the charges won't do him in. But the fresh reminder to owners that in a group who not only handles their marketing and media relations poorly, but seems to have a genuine disdain for it, that this guy can't keep out the press, will.
I actually did an in-depth interview with the local ABC affiliate for reaction to the charges Monday. Piece of advice for bloggers: it's a whole other world doing TV. Playing pundit in front of a video camera will make you rethink why the hell you're doing this, especially if you're not getting paid.
Meanwhile though, Ryan Dempster was completing his rags-to-riches story, inking a 52 million dollar -- not including incentives -- deal to remain with the Cubs. Weird. As recently as a year ago, I talked to fans who would have traded him for a decent middle infielder, and a used rake. Now, we're sighing in relief that we've the right to pay him 15 million per. You know my feelings; it's more cash than I would have liked to commit to him. But the Cubs stayed away from a fifth year, and some of the amateur sabermetricians that I've chatted with think that with inflation, and the assumption of slightly above-average performance, that this looks like a good deal for the Cubs in a year or two. I'll take their word for it -- for now -- but I can't help feeling like spending that money on offers to Randy Johnson and Bobby Abreu would have been a better bet. Just saying.
And, this has to be my quote of the year:
''Maybe we underestimated how prepared you have to be, how ready you have to be, especially in a five-game series.
Game 1 pitcher Ryan Dempster said Tuesday after signing a four-year contract to return to the Cubs.
Really, you think those bush league lineups that you were going with for the last 10 days of the season may have softened you a bit? I'm shocked. Shocked.
Mark Teahen? Really? I generally give Jim Hendry a pass on evaluating talent at the major-league level. He does a real nice job there in finding diamonds in the rough, but Teahen? Let me make a suggestion. The next time that Hendry has Drayton Moore in a room talking trade -- like he reportedly did at the GM meetings -- turn out the lights, and beat Moore silly until he agrees to trade David DeJesus. Leaving a platoon in right instead of center, and letting DeJesus take that job full-time wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
Of course, I have to ask why we're considering trading for him at all, given that he's at the top of the non-tender candidate list, now that the Royals have brought Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs into the fold. That's quite a bit of money to absorb for a small-market team. I hope we find a better option, but if not let's at least wait till the non-tender deadline passes to see if the Royals blink.
One thing that hasn't changed though are the Peavy rumors. I honestly can't stop laughing. I can't think of anyone who has handled negotiations worse in recent memory that Kevin Towers. Atlanta is out, and reportedly looking at Lowe. How you let them walk away from the table, I've no idea. The Cubs look set with starters, making Peavy a very rich luxury. You don't want to deal with the Dodgers, and they're reported looking elsewhere anyway. What happens now? Any place that you send Peavy has that team likely having to open the purse strings to redo his deal; at least picking up his option, and maybe taking on years. And that reduces what those teams offer back to you in value. The Padres would do well to get the Braves back on the phone before they do a deal that makes the Santana trade looks like a massive haul.
Although, with Dempster in the fold, I would not be opposed to dangling Rich Harden, and flipping the prospects for Peavy. I keep looking at Aaron Heilman and Ryan Church in New York, and wondering if he might be that young pitcher the Padres are looking for. Bigger parks out west, less pressure, and a legitimate chance to start. And it's not like Harden isn't a massive upgrade for the Mets. Just a thought.
Kerry Wood says that he would have considered coming back to the Cubs on a one-year deal. Me thinks Kerry is spinning his butt off, but now I'm REALLY curious to see whether they offer him arbitration. Any chance at all that he put that out there to spook the Cubs into not? Sure would make him alot more attractive on the free agent market if teams didn't have to worry about giving up a draft pick.
Oh, and the Cubs will be opening the New Yankee Stadium. Consider me very, very excited. I'm working on getting tickets as we speak.
Filed:November 14th, 2008
Kerry Wood (Cubbie Nation/File)
Well, apparently it's going to be more painful than I thought.
A couple of days ago in writing this piece -- which was originally strictly about MLB's Free Agent Frenzy -- I'd predicted that the fourth year of a new contract was going to be a hell of a sticking point between the Cubs and Wood. Technically, the market wil bear it, no sensible Cubs GM would ever offer it, and someone was going to have to break, lest Wood walk.
Well, that's pretty much the score, with Cubs GM Jim Hendry announcing yesterday that Wood will not be returning to the ballclub in 09.
Hendry sums it up:
"Honestly, we feel for his own good, and for the good of him and his family, there is going to be a longer and more lucrative deal somewhere else than there would be here now. And it would be unfair to keep it dangling for another month or so and say, 'Let's see where the ownership situation is going, let's see what happens if we don't do this, we may do that.'"
In a countermove, the Cubs then sent AA pitcher Jose Ceda to the Florida Marlins for resident closer Kevin Gregg. Gregg has found new life over the last few seasons in the NL, turning himself into a reasonably effective reliever, and a reasonable closing alternative in the event that Carlos Marmol, who appears to be the closer-in-waiting, comes up lame.
Now, regular readers of this blog know already that you'll have to look elsewhere for nostalgia, and talk about Kerry Wood somehow staying because he was a "good guy". It's no diferent than what was discussed in a recent TTITIT piece. Walk away. Just walk away. I'm proud of the Cubs for two reasons this morning; that this is a sign of breaking away from a bad tradition of signing past-their-prime players to inflated deals, and watching them blow up, and that there is a capable farmhand in the organization ready to take a veterans' place.
And say what you will, but Hendry moved flawlessly in my opinion, snagging a solid closer candidate for minimal cost, and one year term. This still leaves him with money to pursue Ryan Dempster, and perhaps find a decent right field bat. I like Jose Ceda, but there are so many problems with him that I don't know where to begin. Not the least of which is it was likely that he'd make only a minimal contribution to the 09 ball club, if at all. This is a Lou Piniella team, after all. I'd always had looked for Ceda to be a fixture; just starting in 2010.There was a reason he'd been dangled as trade bait the last few months.
So, to Kerry I say thanks for the memories, and I hope you get your coin. Seriously. To Jim Hendry, thanks for finally acting like a real talent evaluator. Kevin Gregg, welcome to Chicago. You're the next Bob Howry, so don't become the next Bob Howry. And Ceda...well, I don't think you'll have the career that will justify so many being breathless about you leaving, but you'll have the chance to prove me wrong as soon as next season. But that's the point, isn't it? That veterans move on, and in baseball, youth ultimately is always served.
Free Agent Frenzy
Barry Zito (Cubbie Nation/File)
And with that, below are my picks for the 2008 Free Agent Frenzy contest. These were made two days ago, and I'm going to leave Kerry Wood as entered originally. See, I'm a little sentimental.
1) Bobby Abreu – Mets (13) – A major impact bat, and still a strong base-stealing threat. I’d love to see him in Chicago, but there are potentially two suitors in his preferred location of New York, and I think he’ll take a discount to play LF with the Mets rather than move.
2) Milton Bradley – Mariners (1) – M's need offense, and he’s productive, without the long-term commitments. It’s a good bridge choice.
3) A. J. Burnett – Orioles (9) – Once they realize that the big guys actually want to play for a contender, I expect them to start focusing on A.J. At potentially a 4/60, he’ll be the anchor that the Orioles need.
4) Pat Burrell – Giants (3) – Should follow his heart, but I suspect he’ll follow the cash. He ends up with the Giants, and they’ll at least be back to respectable next season.
5) Ryan Dempster – Mets (4) – At 5/75, he won’t be in Chicago, for certain. New York will pay, and regret it more than the deal they gave Pedro.
6) Adam Dunn – Nationals (14) -- Honestly, stick him in left until you can trade Nick Johnson, and bake.
7) Rafael Furcal – Dodgers (2) -- My sense it that no one will commit to the years that he’d like. If the rumors of 2/30 offer from the Dodgers is true, what’s the point of leaving LA then?
8) Derek Lowe – Cubs (6) – He’ll get 40-45 million offer that Dempster should be getting, and probably perform just as well at Wrigley.
9) Oliver Perez – Brewers (5) – CC staying? I’m not buying it. Oliver is a good, affordable plan B.
10) Manny Ramirez – Yankees (12) – Hank Steinbrenner won’t be able to resist the marquee name. Stick him at DH, and watch the money roll in from Red Sox/Yankees taken up a notch.
11) Francisco Rodriguez – Angels (8) – I think this is the year that reality sets in on relievers. 12 million for 60 innings of work? Not in the midst of this crisis.
12) CC Sabathia – Angels (11) – Loves California, and the Angels should be able to make a 120 million-plus offer without batting an eye. What’s to talk about?
13) Ben Sheets – Dodgers (7) – Should know better after Jason Schimdt, but I don’t think they do.
14) Mark Teixeira – Yankees (10) – Won’t be able to say no to pinstripes. Manny and Teix. God help AL East pitchers next year.
15) Kerry Wood – Cubs (15) – The Cubs will be fair, and a deal will get done. They’ll fight like hell over a 4th year for awhile though.
**Alternate choice - Rangers
Bonus: Orlando Hudson – White Sox
Filed:November 13th, 2008
Jason Marquis (Cubbie Nation - File)
Retain Jason Marquis
Yeah, I said it. I've combed the rumors mills, headlines, scouting reports, and fan blogs to a length that I'm embarrassed to admit in search of a soft landing spot for Jason Marquis. Soft as in a good situation, with a trading partner willing to offer something that resembles a decent return. To the Mets for Duaner Sanchez. To the Rangers for Kameron Loe. Even to the Giants for Randy Winn. Well, a Winn swap makes sense, but that's another post. The fact is, I see the Cubs in virtually all instances having to eat about 2 million dollars to consummate a trade, and -- barring a surprise in the market or package deal -- I think he stays.Or at least should.
It's not that he's a terrible player, you know. He's just so...average. And average even would be fine, were it not for the ludicrous 3/21 contract that Jim Hendry gave Marquis before the 2007 season. Pretty hefty numbers for a guys coming off of a season that ended with him carrying a 6.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. But he did, leaving Cubbie Nation to wonder not only why the Cubs bid against themselves, but what could have been in improving the team with that payroll flexibilty back.
In reality though, maybe Jim had a little hindsight, given the insane contracts doled out to pitchers since. 20 million to Scott Linebrink, as a middle reliever? Kyle Lohse grabbing 40 million? Carlos Silva worth 50 million? Hell, even Ryan Dempster now thinks he's worth 75 million dollars. It's nuts. The market for pitching has deteriorated to the point where Juan Cruz may see a huge payday this offseason. If I thought that the Cubs could pluck from somewhere 200 innings of league-average work for less than 8 million to replace Jason with, I'd say move him. However, I don't. Maybe Bartolo Colon or Randy Wolf, but why chance it?
Fortunately, the good news is that now that Marquis has been seeing a sports psychologist to address his late-season debacles, he appears to be a bit more solid overall. And given that this is a contract season for him as well, I say hold. I suspect that with the Peavy deal probably being a smokescreen, and with Dempster and the Cubs at a contractual impasse, the team may actually need him.
2008 NL ROY Geovany Soto (Cubbie Nation/File)
Filed:November 12th, 2008
Fortunately, all surprises aren't this bad.
In the least surprising move of the 2008 season, Geovany Soto has been named the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year. I mean, when you're playing the most demanding position on the field, and doing it for a division winner, it pretty much breaks about every possible tie. For everyone keeping score, Geo is now the 5th Cubs to receive the honor, following Billy Williams, Ken Hubbs, Jerome Walton, and Kerry Wood. This is the 3rd Cubs ROY that I've personally seen play, and I have to say, he's more talented than the bunch. A big bat, good game caller, and the most fundamentally sound position player that the Cubs have grown on the farm since Brendan Harris. If they don't ask him to do too much, and allow him to grow naturally into a leadership role, this kid is going to be a star. Congratulations to Soto. Oh, and for those interested, the final voting tally is below.
2008 NL Rookie of the Year Voting
Player, Club Points Geovany Soto, CHC 158 Joey Votto, CIN 76 Jair Jurrjens, ATL 34 Edinson Volquez, CIN 9 Jay Bruce, CIN 7 Kosuke Fukudome, CHC 4
Elsewhere, it appears that the stench of desperation has finally come over the Tribune, with requests for new offers for the purchase of the Cubs, and proof of ability to pay to be submitted by Thanksgiving. Numerous sources have reported it, but I figured I'd include the Tribune, so you can get it from the source.
Now, I've tried to discuss this as little as possible, but I feel almost compelled to, since it's becoming terribly apparent that bloggers and beat writers don't seem to actually know much about business. That's cool, but that lack of knowledge makes for some interesting writing, to be sure.
I don't think that many people realize that there is a difference between Sam Zell and the Tribune. Two different entities. Sam Zell is rich. Very rich, although market deterioration has eaten away much of that in the last year. Sam Zell can afford just about anything that he wants, and what he can't afford, someone will lend him the rest to get. The Tribune on the other hand is the corporate equivalent of a very poor cousin, living hand to mouth, and just a paycheck away from being homeless. It has no cash, no further access to credit, and its current creditors are incredibly skittish; more so now that rating agencies are calling its bond offerings less than investment grade. That's right, you can't even call them junk bonds; that would be an upgrade.
Know what a tranche is? You should go check. Seriously. The Tribune has over half a billion dollars due in debt service on their primary tranches within the next year, and currently no means to pay. None. Now, I suppose that they could start selling off papers to cover this, but that only eats into the long-term profitability of the company, and does significant damage to them with analysts, as they've held from the beginning that maintaining and improving the core paper business was critical to the turnaround plan. No, in reality, they must, must sell the Cubs; on schedule, and with the least amount of fuss possible. They simply cannot risk defaulting on those lines, and have those creditors start exercising covenants, which wouldn't even be the worst blowback from defaults coming to pass. It's simply not correct to suggest that Sam Zell will hold out, and fight owners over the highest bid, if need be. A couple hundred million either way on the sale is nothing compared to the hell that follows if they don't raise this cash. You might as well just close the doors the day after. The Tribune will sell the Cubs to the first person -- that MLB owners will accept -- that can raise about 600 million the quickest and easiest. Want to find out who is going to own the Cubs? Follow the money. If your favorite front-runner is cash-rich, or has the best access to cash, that's your guy. And for those who think that's Mark Cuban, think again, at least according to a recent Sun-Times piece:
Cuban has a colorful reputation and drinks beer in the stands with the fans, but the source said the credit drought has hurt his chances. "Whatever the price for the Cubs, he was only going to put in $100 million of his own money," the source said.
As if owners would even agree to sell one of their marquee franchises to an owner with that little skin in the game.
My point is, anyone who tells you that the sale of the Cubs will be delayed is simply wrong. It will be on time, orderly, and consistent with the wishes of MLB, and its owners. Even if that means them continuing to hold a stake -- at least temporarily -- until the market conditions improves. The Tribune Corp is simply not in the baseball business. It's in the media business, and the people they deal with only want to hear about the money. So, unless you start hearing that the LA Times may go up for sale, Zell has only one choice to raise half a billion bucks by May: Sale the Cubs. And quickly.
Atlanta Brave Kelly Johnson(Cubbie Nation/File)
Filed:November 9th, 2008
Ryan Theriot, Sean Marshall, and Jose Ceda to Atlanta for Kelly Johnson(Subsequently shipped with Jordan Schafer to San Diego for Jake Peavy)
Pitching is not always king.
Reflecting over the Cubs team of the last few seasons -- and in particular the playoffs -- their problem is not pitching. It’s hitting, mostly. And to be perfectly honest, it’s a bit professionalism. The 2008 Cubs had a potent offense, capable pitching, and a reasonably strong defense, however when it came time to perform under the glare of a national spotlight, they faded. Again. Why?
1) There is nothing wrong with Alfonso Soriano as a lead-off man. Seriously. But when you have that sort of streaky ballplayer leading off, you are obligated to have a rock-solid professional hitter hitting behind him. And considering the Cubs righty-oriented middle of the order, preferably a left-handed one. The Cubs served up slap-hitting Ryan Theriot instead for most of the season in the two-hole, and in the ultimate indignity, even used Kosuke Fukudome there in the series against the Dodgers. Won’t work. At least not against the premier opponents.
2) Professionalism – There has long been anecdotal evidence that the Cubs refused to embrace advance scouting reports, and as they found themselves matched against more competitive teams, this was severely exploited. Additionally, pitchers have the book on Cubs hitters, and many have been very slow to make adjustments. Aramis Ramirez? Completely clutch. But when you start looking at players from last season: Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee, Jim Edmonds, and especially Soriano, you’ve got big-time players that end up looking outmatched. They haven’t forgotten how to hit, but they are not coming up to the plate prepared.
3) Terrible lineup composition. Everybody knows it, most especially manager Lou Piniella. The lack of lefties is killing this team!!! If you had any doubt, simply look to the 2008 NLDS, where the Dodgers could send in a late-inning righty, and they stayed in for multiple innings, and the Cubs had no strong lefties to make the opposing manager get situational. In May against the Pirates, it probably doesn’t matter. In the Fall against the cream of the league? You’re going to get abused. Brian Roberts would have fixed much of this, but short of a miracle happening, they’ll need to look elsewhere.
My point? For the Cubs, pitching isn’t your problem; your makeup is. So imagine my surprise as I’ve read and listened to the rumors of the Cubs involving themselves in a battle for the rights to Jake Peavy.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s an amazing talent, and certain to make almost any good team an immediate serious contender. That’s not the problem. What perplexes me is the 13 million or so annual commitment that he demands, and that’s assuming that you’re not required to tear up that contract in order to have Peavy waive his NTC. This solves any of the Cubs current issues…how?
Now, I’ve heard the rumors that starter Ryan Dempster is looking for a 5/75 deal, which I still can’t stop laughing about. So, I can see that if you’re a casual observer to the Cubs, the idea of replacing him with Jake for about the same cost makes some sense. However, if you look a bit closer, you’d see that the Cubs can still be a very competitive team without either, fielding a likely starting rotation of:
ZambranoLillyMarquisHardenGaudin/Samardzija/Hill/any 5th starter FA signing
It’s a good staff to start the season, and the Cubs could save the cash for potential pickups at the deadline. Oh, and for those lefty bats that they covet.
My suggestion? Get out of this nonsense, and move toward using this deal to pluck a real shortstop in Kelly Johnson. To those who don’t know, Kelly is an old shortstop, turned outfielder, turned second baseman. Reportedly, he was quite talented, but with guys like Rafael Furcal lurking around in the system, there was always a better talent at the position. Now, it’s understandable – given their long history of solid shortstops – that the Braves would move him out of that spot. However, for the Cubs, Kelly is both an upgrade at the shortstop position and a solution to a number of other problems with their ball club. Better range and arm than the incumbent. Left-handed bat. A legitimate top-of-the-order hitter. And a genuine professional from the Braves organization. Their prospects always come up knowing how to play the game right. Well, maybe not Wilson Betemit, but there is always an exception.
Further, by getting out of the Peavy deal, the Padres now have their hand forced, leaving them to deal with the Braves almost exclusively, which should keep the price down a bit.
So, let see: a major-league ready starter, a starting SS, a centerfield prospect, and a late-inning reliever for a guy with a NTC that’s he’s enforcing strongly enough to call the shots on this deal? Sounds about right to me. Everyone gets what they really need, and I think the Cubs get better in the process.
Ronny Cedeno - File (Cubbie Nation/File)
Filed:November 7th, 2008
Ronny Cedeno and Neal Cotts to Baltimore for George Sherrill
I can't stand a lunkhead.
During the course of the baseball season, I inevitably end up in at least two conversations a week about whether Cedeno is a good shortstop. Amateur sabermetricians and more defense-oriented fans love him, and can't figure out why he doesn't play more. Maybe you've seen him on TV, and wondered the same thing. But if you're watching 20-40 games a season at Wrigley like I do, we're generally in agreement on why that is; he's a lunkhead.
Whether it's his being prone to defensive guffaws at the worst possible moments, a total inability to effectively run the base paths, no comprehension of situational hitting, or slugger-like swing, he will do something in almost every game in which he appears that will leave you wondering why is he on a major league ballclub at all. Manager Lou Piniella gets it, even going so far as to make Mike Fontenot his primary infield backup, regardless of Cedeno's defensive talents.
Here's the good news though. There are 30 general managers in baseball. Numerous assistant GMs, player personnel directors, cross checkers, managers, hitting coaches, and infield instructors. In all, probably a few hundred guys -- and women -- in a position of influence around baseball. All it takes is a couple to think "we can fix this guy", and a player like Cedeno is in play.
The likeliest place for this to happen is Baltimore, where the shortstop solutions are possibly even worse than their starting pitching. No team in baseball is in more need of a upgrade at the position than the Orioles, who fielded the likes of Brandon Fahey, Freddie Bynum, and Alex Cintron there in 2008, with the expected terrible results. For the Orioles, Cedeno represents a real and tangible upgrade right now, with meaningful upside, as they are a place that can afford to give him a season-long assessment.
Now, I suppose that they could try and convince a bigger talent to sign with them via free agency, but in reality, they need to spend that money on infrastructure, and pitching. Lots and lots of pitching. And really, as they appear to be putting together a major Teixeira offer, and Brian Roberts extension, the cash is effectively spent. There's just no point in overpaying for Hudson or Furcal to join the club, which is what would likely need to happen to get a free agent to join a rebuilding team.
In return, the Cubs collective an effective -- albeit over and mis-used -- middle reliever. George Sherrill came over from the Mariners as part of that big Erik Bedard trade, and was thrust into the closer's role following injuries to Danys Baez and Chris Ray. He did a fantastic job overall, collecting 31 saves in 2008, and making the All-Star game. The reality though is that he's a closer in name and situation only, and as the season wore on, this reality eventually set in. Sherrill would finish the season with a 4.73 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP. It is the AL East, after all. However, he has always been able to get left-handed hitters out, and has blossomed into a legitimate set-up man, capable of retiring righties as well. Bottom line is that George is not a closer, and would be much more productive in his usual setup role. With a gaping hole left by the booting departure of Scott Eyre, and a very affordable price tag, I think Sherrill would be a welcome addition to the Cubs.
A full-time position player for a middle reliever? What do you think?
Filed:November 5th, 2008
Felix Pie and Nick Swisher (Cubbie Nation/File and AP)
Felix Pie and Michael Weurtz to the White Sox for Nick Swisher
It shouldn't have come to this really. Pie has long been the apple of the organization's eye, even going so far as to make his way onto the 2008 roster as the Opening Day starter. However, a terrible April quickly lead to his place in the Lou Piniella doghouse, and ultimately, a trip to the minors in May. Now, it wasn't so much that he didn't hit, as that doesn't really seem to be something Lou worries too much about in general. No, it was his approach at the plate, slowness in adopting coaching and instruction, and lack of batter's eye that did him in.
However, after making the September callups, we got to see a much more polished Felix, going .300/.391/.450 in September. Small sample size? Absolutely. However, it was seeing him take pitches, make adjustments, and seem more at ease around the ballpark that convinced me that he was adapting. And while I don't think that that this triple slash number is representative of his talents, I can certainly see him settling in somewhere in the .270/.340/.450 range as a pro.
Unfortunately for him though, he's out of time; or at least options. And the pronouncement that the Cubs were shopping for a power-hitting outfielder this off-season means that Kosuke Fukudome is likely headed out to center for a platoon with Reed Johnson, at least for 2008. Now, there might be some appeal to leaving Felix on the roster as a fifth outfielder to start the season, but it's my position that it can only devalue him in trade further. Kosuke Fukudome and his contract won't be leaving anytime soon, and so it's time for Felix to go.
And by go, we mean the Southside. Ozzie Guillen and the Sox have been looking for a strong centerfield solution for a few years now, with no one able to grab the ring, even going so far as to send Swisher out there for 70 games last season. That's desperate. Brian Anderson isn't the answer, and neither is Dewayne Wise. Jerry Owens? Even if his .700 OPS excited you, his situation is worse than Waiting for Godot. Move on. Kenny Williams recently stated that he's interested in taking the White Sox through a youth movement, and we agree. We just think he's got the wrong youth.
Now one might argue that a .219 average -- Swisher's 2008 average -- is not something worth trading for, and normally you'd be right. But Nick Swisher hasn't forgotten how to hit at age 27, as his 24 home runs last year can somewhat attest to. The combination of playing out of position, a new city, and chemistry hurt him in 2008, and he's likely to have a strong bounceback in 2009. But just as Felix is relegated to a 4th outfielder due to situations out of his control, Swisher is dealing with MVP candidates in the outfield, and an immoveable NTC at first.
With that, and a very affordable contract in 2009 and 2010, we think he's just the right part and personality to fit in with the Cubs in 2009. While some will likely consider the return of Jim Edmonds a more attractive alternative, we don't. Not at 12 years older, and likely a couple of million more in cost.
Bottom line, it's the perfect buy low strategy for both teams, with tremendous upside at each end. For the Cubs, you get a player likely to at least reproduce Edmond's 2008 numbers. For the Sox, a strong centerfield candidate under control for five-plus more years, and much needed bullpen help. It's a win-win.
2008 Chicago Cubs (Cubbie Nation/File)
Welcome to the Hot Stove Season.
It officially kicks off this week, with the General Managers' meeting, and continues with the official opening of free agency November 13th. So far, some 100-plus players have filed for free agency, and even with less than ideal market conditions, most can expect to see significant interest and sizable pay increases in this wonderful world of baseball parity. Teams are flush, and the Wild Card makes every GM start getting delusions of grandeur, no matter what their actual situation.
And the Cubs? Well, not so much. Even their pocketbook has a limit, and as we transition out of the Zell/Tribune ownership into...well, whomever is going to own this thing with the Trib, management is putting a clamp on big contracts. Crane Kenney says general manager Jim Hendry will have the money to work though, even if he won't be able to drop another 50 million or so on his favorite free agent.
So, how then do you improve a team that won 97 games last season, without the benefit of being able to take on meaningful salary? And for that matter, do you want to try? Many have some ideas about that, and here at Cubbie Nation, we've got a few as well.
That said, over the next week we'll be bringing you a five-part series known as "Five moves the Cubs should make...but probably won't". We've scoured the free-agent roster, looked at who is currently out of favor with their current club, and considered at some depth what the hell is wrong with these Cubs. From this, we've determined five transactions that should take place to improve the 2009 Cubs, and hopefully make them a touch better in the postseason; assuming that they get back, of course. We think you'll enjoy it.
Check back often over the next week, and definitely drop us a note and tell us what you think.
Filed:October 30th, 2008
Kosuke Fukudome and Reed Johnson celebrate a Cubs win (Cubbie Nation/File)
Click here for the 2008 in Pictures gallery
It's over.
With a fantastic 4-3 win over the Rays last night, baseball has found its king in the Philadelphia Phillies, and the 2008 season is officially drawn to a close.
While I most sincerely wish that we were looking at the Cubs celebrating instead right now, having spent some time in Philadelphia, and knowing some of their more polite fans, I'm extremely happy for them. It's been a incredibly maligned team for most of this decade. Pegged a classic and chronic underachievers, they finally found the right combination of players, and expectations fulfilled in guys like Pat "The Bat" Burrell to punch their ticket. Congratulations, even to Scott Eyre, who likely is having the last laugh on Lou right about now.
But this isn't about the Phillies. It's partly in that every other team and their fans are left to spend a long winter contemplating what might have been, and what could be for the next season. Countdowns to Spring Training have officially begun, the Hot Stove season is around the corner, and even the saddest of us will be forced to forget 2008 soon enough.
But there are three things that I learned covering the Cubs this season that I never quite knew before. First, the season ends much too soon and abruptly. Especially when expectations are not met. And yes, after success in the last few seasons, there are a lot more fans at the park who have expectations. Second, that you can't get photos that anyone really wants to look at from the outfield. Lesson learned.
Lastly, is that it takes everybody to make a successful team. And I mean everyone in the organization, and most certainly on the field. Some guys you'll remember for all your lives. Some only the hardcore fan will sort of remember. "Hey, remember Mike Fontenot and those homers that he was launching in 08?" And as free agency, harsh realities, and desires to upgrade set in, some guys are all but forgotten. Teams change. This one already has, with Casey McGehee waived. He was acquired by the Brewers yesterday.
These guys shouldn't be forgotten. And so in what I hope to be an annual piece at Cubbie Nation, I submit the 2008 team in pictures. I'm pretty sure that we've included any and all who made an appearance with the Cubs this season, and the coaching staff. It was a great season, one of the best in Cubs history; even if it ended so poorly. I hope you find that I've done them justice.
Filed:October 27th, 2008
Adrian Gonzalez (Cubbie Nation/File)
It may be a touch premature, but I'm preparing a big thank you for my Philly friends the next time I'm in town. After watching MLB playoffs the last five years that featured: the Cubs meltdown in 2003; the Red Sox removing their curse in 2004; the White Sox in 2005, and 83 win Cardinals teaming winning in 2006, and the Red Sox doing it once more for good measure in 2007, my dignity can/could not suffer the Tampa Bay Devil Rays winning in 2008. Eleven years in existence -- all losing seasons before 2008 -- and a championship? Well, after last night's Phillies 10-2 win, I think I can put my search for a gas oven to stick my head in to rest.
It's disappointing though, in all seriousness. My initials thought was that the Rays would take momentum, couple it with home field and a too young to know better mentality, and take advantage of a Philadelphia pitching staff that gets a bit shaky past Hamels, Myers, and Lidge. What we're seeing instead is a team melting down quickly. Too many errors, a completely shutdown middle of the order for Tampa, and just some bad luck have them down 3-1 and on the verge of giving the Phillies their first championship in nearly 30 years. Somewhere Ed Wade has got to be shaking his head, and wondering "Why couldn't they do this for me?"
Back in Cubdom
I generally try to leave the mainstream media and their journalists alone; I mean really, it's just piling on. Put someone passed me this recent article by Phil Rogers over at the Tribune. Wow. I'm actually embarrassed for him. Now believe it or not, I'm one of the few who think that the Cubs could land Jake Peavy, assuming that they would part with Carlos Marmol and Jeff Samardzija, if only because Peavy calls the shots with trade destinations. But for those of you who don't know, owner John Moores is shedding assets, having found himself in the middle of a divorce which will force him to sell a 49% stake in the Fathers. Hell, the Peavy trade talk is mostly centered around the cash-strapped Padres relieving themselves of the roughly 60 million owed to him over the next four years. So explain to me why the Padres would have any interest in trading Adrian Gonzalez -- owed a little over a million for the next two years -- for a 26 million dollar Lee contract over that same time. The same Lee who is older, arguably a worse player at this stage of his career, and likely to see his power numbers decline further playing in Petco. Oh, and the Padres would probably command a kings ransom dangling Gonzalez out there as a power alternative to Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira this off-season. Yes Phil, you're officially the newest member of the lunatic fringe.
Honestly, Derrek Lee should go. But the much more likely scenario if it happened would be a shift of Mark DeRosa to 1st, and pursuing a Rafael Furcal or Orlando Hudson, rather than dumping a bloated contract on a team in exchange for one of the premier power hitters in the game.
It is good to see a GM with more sense than money for a change however, as Frank Wren states publicly that the Braves won't part with their top prospects for Peavy. Rumor has it a one point the discussion was centered around Tommy Hanson, Yunel Escobar, AND Kelly Johnson. That's quite a haul, and that's before the dollars are considered, which seem a bit pricey for the Braves. I see the logic in parting with both of the infielders, with replacements in the wings by the 2010 season at latest. But Hanson should be considered untouchable, and it's refreshing to see a GM a touch realistic about where his club is actually at.
And speaking of power, Aramis Ramirez winning the Hank Aaron award? Really? No Howard, Wright, Berkman, Pujols, or Manny? I think it's time to put fan voting on the backburner for awhile.
Congratulations to Pat Listach, added to the Washington Nationals staff as third base coach last week. Pat by all indications is an excellent managerial talent, and on the fast track to a manager's job in the pros. I'd look for him to be on the short-list for some team as early as 2010.
Interestingly, Jim Riggleman and Marquis Grissom have been added to the staff as well. What happens if you have three or more ex-Cubs as coaches?
My favorite news of the week has to be word that the Cubs may open the new Yankee Stadium in a series of exhibition games, which sounds fantastic. The teams are still in negotiation to make this happen, and I do have some concern about an already crowded spring schedule, with the WBC upcoming. However, there is something so inherently cool about the tradition and classics of the old, meeting the cutting edge and advanced new. Do it.
From his mouth to God's ear: Lou Piniella got a very nice shout out from the New York Times, confirming in print what I think many of us knew. They go on to state:
Piniella said the Cubs' main agenda these next few weeks will be to re-sign pending free agents Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood and explore trade options for lefthanded hitting and bullpen help. He also said he plans to move Kosuke Fukudome, the Cubs' $48 million Japanese import whose second-half slump exasperated the manager, to center field as part of a platoon with Reed Johnson.
Sounds about right. There's an upcoming series that we'll be running here shortly that will elaborate, but there is a name that I keep coming back to. Nick Swisher.
And I think this just confirmed that someone will be leaving town. Felix Pie, we hardly knew ya.
Filed: October 20th, 2008
In what is the worst surprise of the month, given last week's news of the Cubs refusal to allow the Mariners to interview him, numerous media outlets are reporting that Jim Hendry has agreed to and signed a four-year extension to continue as GM of the Cubs.
While I have generally viewed Jim Hendry as only a better-than-average general manager during his tenure in Chicago, I think this is a good think. In my mind, continuity is key to a successful franchise, first and foremost. And for his questionable evaluation and development of organizational talent, he has done well since leaving Andy McPhail's shadow in creating and executing a plan for the rise of the Cubs. Back-to-back winning seasons, shrewd free-agent signings, and tirelessly working to make Chicago a premier baseball destination for fans and free agents alike that it should have been all along rank high with me.
However, what probably is most interesting is that with Lou Piniella likely not managing past 2010, he'll certainly have a say in the hiring of the new manager, which suggests that he has the full support of the potential buyers of the Cubs. Although there has been some talk of the potential sale being delayed, it should still be completed sometime in 2009, given the sizeable upcoming debt service payments the Tribune needs to make. That said, it's difficult to imagine that they bidders were not consulted before granting this extension.
Love him or hate him, Hendry looks to be here to stay. And given that this is another strong signal by the Cubs making a commitment to winning for the foreseeable future, I think it's a good thing.
Filed: October 10th, 2008
Sigh. I'm over it.
And yes, I pretty much needed the entire week away to detox myself of the debacle that was the 2008 NLDS. It doesn't help though being in Philly for the week, where the fans are positively giddy. Even quite a few out-of-towners at my hotel are sporting Phillies gear. Given that with them up in the NLCS 2-0 after the 8-5 win tonight, the Dodgers are likely to be headed home soon, so you can see why my spirits have improved enough to blog. Call me a touch jaded, but I can really do without the MSM -- that especially means you ESPN -- beating us with Manny back to Boston stories for 10 days during the World Series. Yes, I think Boston will get there.
I will say the week has been interesting though. I said to a fan during Game 2 last week that after leaving in Kosuke Fukudome to face Cory Wade -- he struck out -- that this was the moment that Chicago would begin to turn on Lou. It didn't take long. Local media types have been calling out Lou like a dog. For some reason, Dave Kaplan seems to almost have a fetish over the topic, saying on numerous occasions that Lou can't control a clubhouse.
Let me tell you what I think about that. The last times that the Cubs won back-to-back anything was 100 years ago. Since then, they've been wildly inconsistent, not acheiving long-term success, and moving in a reactive mode; generally when the team became so poor that it affected tickets sales and TV audiences. Lou Piniella took a team that was on the verge of losing 100 games the year before, and took them to a division title the very next year. And to a team on the verge of winning 100 inside of two. He's got his senior moments, no question. And personally you know my feelings about some of the moves made during the playoffs. However, whatever problems that the Cubs have are not on Lou. He doesn't catch, he doesn't throw, and he doesn't field. And most of these players are not his guys. He's making the most of the talent he's given and what assets the organization has. And like every manager or coach in pro sports today, has to suffer divas and prima donnas to get the best out of some guys. Ease up. There's a couple in every clubhouse.
It takes time to build not just a winner, but a champion. Ask the Red Sox, who hammered away with good teams against the Yankees for years. Or the Yankees themselves, who searched most of the 90's before finding the right note. The Phillie have been on the verge for years, and look primed to make finally their splash this year. With most of their talent locked up, and Crane Kenney acknowledging not only a commitment to winning next season, but approval for a payroll increase, the Cubs looked primed to make another run. And someone is going to have to cite more than an over-emotional and flaky since birth Carlos Zambrano, and a diva Alfonso Soriano in the clubhouse to convince me that Lou isn't the guy anymore to lead them.
That said, I will share a few do and don't that I hope happen this off-season. The team is close. And a couple of tweaks could make the difference.
Do resign Reed Johnson and Henry Blanco. I know that a 3 million dollar option seems like a bit of a luxury for a backup catcher. Renegotiate if you can, and if not, pick it up anyway. You're a large market team. That's Latin for luxury.
Do resign Bob Howry -- assuming he'll accept an incentive-laden deal. My first reaction after an abysmal 2008 campaign for Howry --5.35 ERA, with 1.45 WHIP -- is to run away screaming when his agent calls. But Bob on a one year, under 1.5 million deal sounds intriguing. If he doesn't work out, you've got this year's Chad Fox. If he does, you've got an affordably priced effective middle reliever, with closing experience. It's not as if they have a rock-solid middle inning solution at the moment.
Do say goodbye to Michael Wuertz and Neal Cotts. Can't. Be. Counted. On. Ever.
Don't keep Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood if cost too much. I love them both. But anything more than 2 year with an option for Woods, or 40 million for Dempster is just nuts. Ryan Dempster was effective this season only because of his level of preparation and conditioning; his words. 40 million bucks has a funny way of making guys stop answering the phone when their personal trainers call. Thank them for their service, offer them arbitration, take the picks, and move on.
Don't get sucked into Raul Ibanez. I'm a HUGE Raul fan, if only for the cool-ass name. But he's a soon-to-be 37 year old, who has always been choppy defensively in left. The notion of moving him to right is mind boggling.
Do find another lefty bat. Orlando Hudson, Bobby Abreu, Brian Roberts, Rafeal Furcal, Jeremy Hermida, Nick Swisher, and Luke Scott are all viable targets. Face it, you've been exposed. Playoff teams will extend their late-inning guy an extra inning, and wear your righty lineup out, as you got no LH punch to break it up, or a lefty off the bench potent enough to make opposing managers get situational. It's straight from a top-tier starter to great late-inning relievers. If you're lucky, you can get three lefties in your everyday lineup. Worst case, you can get a big lefty bat for the bench. And yes, that means goodbye Daryle Ward.
Do drop Derrek Lee in the lineup. It's just time.
Jerremy Affedlt or Damaso Marte. Pick one.
Do trade Felix Pie. Felix is out of options, and the Cubs are out of excuses. I love what I saw of him in September, looking more comfortable around the ballpark, and selective at the plate. However, Kosuke is a problem. Ideally, you'd move DeRosa to right, Kosuke to center field, and go get Brian Roberts. Or you'd get a new RF, and suffer the same dilemma. Any deal that was made with Kosuke to play right was lost when he couldn't hit his weight. If/when he hits next year, you've got a nice platoon. If he doesn't, he's your fourth outfielder. If he really hits, you can move DeRosa to a more natural super-sub role. It works. Point being, are you really prepared to have two lefties on the roster with hitting issues?
Food for thought. Till next time.
Filed: October 5th, 2008
This dream is over. It died when Russell Martin and company burned the Cubs yet again, this time in a series-ending 3-1 loss that will have many questioning whether it's time to blow this team up.
Since I woke up so frustrated with Alfonso Soriano that I considered trading him straight up for Aaron Heilman a good idea -- even if we had to take back Castillo's insane contract -- I think I'm going to need a little time to properly heal from this one. So that said, I'm going to get a little scarce until after the World Series. I'll check in with the occasional update, but I think for me a little distance is good. Maybe for you too.
I will say a couple of things right now though. First, congratulations to the Dodgers. They've got the formula down, and you have to give Ned Colleti some credit. I think owner Frank McCourt is something of a naïf and a loon -- see three-year contract to Jason Schmidt as an example -- but Ned's got good pitching and talented parts, and deserves credit for pairing them with a great coach and a huge impact bat. Good luck to them, as the Phillies look especially good this year. It should be a great series.
For the fans, I say try to keep your head up. I can't begin to stress this enough; the Cubs were a bad organization, and for a very long time. Whether you look at the reactive mode of management, uncaring ownership, the quality of the managerial talent, to the success rate in the draft, they were just bad. But as I think three playoff appearances in five years shows, they're past the loveable loser image. I expect them to be back next season -- regardless of owner -- and there are good things happening in the farm system to make me believe that they can be competitive for years to come if they chose. For whatever our frustration with the 100 year itch, the truth is that there are at fans of at least 25 teams that would happily trade places with us. They'll get this right, and I think sooner rather than later.
And to the Cubs, you choked. Spin it how you like, but you did. And the organization is going to have to make some very important decisions about what they want the team to look like going forward, because the regression to free-swinging hacks isn't going to work. Now, I'll assume that they will attempt to remain competitive for the next few years, as I can't see Piniella having agreed to the 2010 season unless he was given assurances by the potential owners. However, there is much work to be done. I appreciate the need to keep Soriano at leadoff, but you need a rock solid, classic lead-off man hitting in the two-hole if you stick with that. That guy is not Ryan Theriot. Maybe it's Kosuke Fukudome, who I expect better things from next season, but probably not. I'd reopen the Brian Roberts dialogue, but that's just me.
Is it time to say goodbye to Derrek Lee, who has officially stepped over the line into decline phase? Are you parting with Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood? I could go on, but you get the idea. The Cubs have done a nice job of putting talent on the field, but there's not much star power. And no true leaders. The next stop for Piniella is going to be changing the culture, and for that to happen, some people may need to go.
And to readers of Cubbie Nation, thanks for a great season. I received many kind calls and e-mails, which were greatly appreciated. Upgrades and improvements are already in development for next season, so check back often.
Filed: September 2nd, 2008
Click here for photos of 2008 NLDS:Game 2
Disgusting. That's the only word that I find appropriate right now to describe the Cubs in Game 2 of the 2008 NLDS. The team had a complete meltdown in front of 42,136 -- and a national TV audience -- resulting in a 10-3 loss to the Dodgers that has put their season on life support, and raised serious questions about the composition of the team and management.
And when I say complete, I assure you that it isn't hyperbole. Of course, most of you have seen the mess by now.
Consider: The starting pitching. It isn't a stretch to say that Carlos deserved better, but his composure was put to the test in the bizarre second inning, and the innings that followed. Zambrano would last six-plus, and while only three of his seven runs were allowed, he did himself no favors on the mound Thursday.
Consider: The defense, who took what should have at worst been a two-run second inning, and turned it into something from an Abbott and Costello bit. Let's see; first with Andre Ethier on, Ryan Theriot inexplicably tries to bare hand a James Loney hit ball, rather than reaching with the glove. I'll grant you that he had to shift direction, as he was running to second to cover second, but he had a play on the ball, and he did not have to bare hand. As if he was talented enough a shortstop to do so anyway.
Mark DeRosa would then blow a potential double play when he'd bobble a ball hit by Blake DeWitt, that allowed Ethier to score.
Then, with a sure out at first, and at least the chance of an inning-ending double play, Derrek Lee bobbles a ball, allowing Casey Blake to reach. Rafael Furcal would then single in a run, before Russell Martin sent a shot -- and I mean a shot -- into center for a double. Two runs score, and the route is officially on. Maybe you let that be, but considering that Aramis Ramirez would commit one in the fourth, and Theriot in the ninth, it isn't a stretch to say they blew it.
Consider: The hitters, who did nothing against Dodgers starter Chad Billingley, who left one fan in the stands wondering when the Dodgers resurrected Cy Young. The Cubs 1-4 hitters were 4-16, with zero RBI. None.
Consider: The bullpen, who allowed three runs after Zambrano's departure. Even the Carlos Marmol/Kerry Wood combo was no good.
Consider: The manager and coaches, for completely blowing this game. I don't like to disparage coaching about this sort of thing normally, as grown men have to go out on the field and execute. Your manager just isn't going to catch the ball for you. But there were just too many managerial braincramps to ignore.
First Kosuke Fukudome, who apparently Lou is just now figuring out what anybody who has seen the Cubs live over the last few months already knew; he's done. At least for this year. The guys needs to go home, relax, and come back next season. MLB pitchers have adjusted, and Kosuke's headspace is just too wrecked to properly adjust. His body is shot, and you're just not going to tweak his approach enough in-season to get him well.
Lou's postgame quote was priceless:
"From now on, I don't want to hear about Fukudome anymore as far as whether he's going to play or not. I'm going to play [Mike] Fontenot or Reed Johnson or somebody else, and that's the end of that story. The kid is struggling, and there's no sense sending him out there anymore."
Now call me simple, but this was obvious. I can understand starting him in Game 1 to see if you could get something, but hitting him in the two-hole was inexcusable. And letting him go again after going 0-4 was just silly. Consider as well, that with two on and two out in the seventh, Joe Torre brought in right-hander Cory Wade to face Kosuke. Why? Because bringing in a lefty would have resulted in matchup-loving Lou going with Reed Johnson. They wanted that matchup because he hits like a pitcher, and everyone seems to know this but Lou. Point being, you could have gone to Fontenot then. Pie. Ward. Some other left hander who could have given you something. Instead, he sticks with Kosuke, who strikes out; again.
Or again, when he left Neal Cotts in to face right-hander Matt Kemp earlier in the seventh. Everyone knew what was going to happen, and it did. Kemp sent a sharp double down the line, scoring Manny Ramirez. Explain to me please with any number of righties in the pen, and a day off tomorrow, why a manager would do this?
Bottom line, Lou was outcoached.
I'm not one to be a big cheerleader, but I know anything is possible. Just win a game. One game, and we'll see. But between you and me, I've been keeping a little cash tucked away for World Series tickets; just in case. Let's just say that I'm looking at other purchases this morning.
Filed: September 1st, 2008
Ah, there's where he got off to.
Ryan Dempster absolutely imploded Wednesday night, walking seven -- including the bases loaded in the 5th -- and serving up a grand glam to James Loney in that same inning. The result? Cubs lose 7-2, and face what now is a must-win tonight at Wrigley. Carlos Zambrano will start Thursday, facing Chad Billingsley for the Dodgers.
I appreciate that Ryan Dempster is a talented pitcher, who's been extraordinary this season. However, if you've read me for awhile, you know that I was especially unimpressed with Ryan at the beginning of the season. Great stuff, good presence on the mound, but ridiculous walk totals. Now, I'm not sure if it was the weather -- Kerry Wood seemed to suffer from similar problems until the temps started rising -- or approach, but as the season went on, it mostly went away. Mostly.
Last night though we were treated to the Ryan that I saw in April. Good stuff, but the approach just wasn't right. He was pretty much on the ropes from the onset, with baserunners in each inning of work, mostly via the walk. Someone is going to need to have an intervention, because you've got to believe if the Cubs are going to win this thing, they're going to have to do it with Dempster back at Wrigley for Game 5.
Shame too, as a Mark DeRosa home run in the second gave everyone reason for hope. It was Mark's first career postseason homer, and one of his two hits on the night.
Offensively though, that was about it. What did not help was the top of the lineup, where the 1-4 hitters collectively went 2-16. Alfonso Soriano was abused, as expected with any good sinkerball pitcher who can park his stuff lower and better than Soriano can hit those low balls. And while it was controversial to start Kosuke Fukudome in right, it was somewhat unfathomable to hit him second. Fundamentally, I understand the thinking, but in reality he is a hot mess, and Theriot's stroke and approach were much more conducive to hitting Dodgers starter Derek Lowe than Kosuke's. Fukudome goes 0-4 -- and looks bad doing it, while Theriot has a 2-4 night hitting eighth. Dumb.
You can pretty much guess the rest. Trailing in the middle innings, Lou Piniella had no choice but to go to the "B" team in the bullpen, and hope for the best. Didn't work. Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, and Jason Marquis were each tagged for runs in relief, including Marshall allowing the obligatory home run to Manny Ramirez in the seventh, that pretty much put the game away for good.
So, the Cubs go back to it tonight at 8:30 CT. Yes, 8:30. Call me crazy, but I'm just not worried about Zambrano. With plenty of time to rest and collect himself, I expect him to be quite effective, if not crisp. What I do hope to see as well though is:
1) A Mike Fontenot start
2) Ryan Theriot back in the 2 spot.
3) Piniella willing to stretch Carlos Marmol if needed, especially with a day off tomorrow.
4) And a little fortitude out of this team.
It's simple really. 100 years doesn't matter. The season doesn't matter. Hell, last night doesn't matter. All that does is winning Thursday night. Period.