Filed:December 1st, 2008
Jim Edmonds (Cubbie Nation/File)
I received a very interesting e-mail from a reader last night, asking for support from Cubbie Nation in campaigning for the return of Jim Edmonds. You know, my first reaction was to chuck it off, and respond back to him privately when I had a quiet moment. However, after thinking about it a bit more, I wanted to add a couple of thoughts, and perhaps discuss it a bit more publicly.
The short answer is yes Pat, you're a little crazy; for a couple of different reasons. Problem number one is that he doesn't fit the bill for what the Cubs want to do in 2009, and for however much we know -- or think we know -- about baseball, the Cubs have decided it's best to move on, and we have to accept that.
Don't get me wrong, everybody likes Jim, at least from what I've heard. Well, maybe not some fans, but that's a different story. But the Cubs have two left-handed solutions for center field in Felix Pie and Kosuke Fukudome, and a desire to get younger and more athletic in general. Both of these things combined put an Edmonds signing ridiculously at odds with reality. Now, I personally think that Felix Pie is on his way out the door, but there's a 42 million dollar commitment to Fukudome that can't be ignored, so he's not going anywhere.
And that's really what's best for 2009. Pair Kosuke up with a reliable platoon partner in Reed Johnson in center field to start the season, rest him a few days a week, and hope that you can hide that .800 OPS -- we hope -- in center a bit better than they could in right.
Now, I suppose that you could make the argument that there is some benefit in leaving Kosuke in right, resigning Edmonds, and shifting Johnson to right a bit more often in platoon. However, defensively that's a bit more a liability than finding the younger, athletic right fielder that the Cubs are looking for. And it still doesn't address the problem of Edmonds himself.
See, the Cubs caught lightning in a bottle in 08; not only able to put Edmonds into an almost perfect situation on the field, but getting him cheaply to boot. However, this off-season, as a reasonably productive left-handed bat, I'd look for him to slot in around 40% of the contract that Adam Dunn ultimately gets. Right now, that looks like about four million for next season; maybe six. Not too rich, but probably a bit more than the Cubs would prefer to spend.
Further, if there was one free agent that I'd be worried about showing strong decline next year, it would be Edmonds. When he came to the Cubs last year, he was a hot mess. Still on the mend from his calf injury, his bat was slow, he couldn't make contact, and there was no ability to drive the ball. Gerald Perry really smoothed him out, but in something of an odd way. They eliminated his stride at the plate altogether, allowing Jim to wait back longer on fastballs, but at the expense of natural power generation. It's all core and arms; no lower body.
Now, maybe you can get a few good months out of that approach, and maybe a bit longer with a good platoon. However, I don't think that this approach is sustainable, particularly as he further ages. You saw some of what I mean toward the end of last season, when Edmonds was unavailable for stretches. Maybe he'll adjust to get more lower-body power, but I expect pitchers to adjust, too. I haven't rang any of my favorite sabermetricians lately on it, but if I had to make an educated guess, I'd project him at about .255/.355/.460 for next season. Not bad, but not worth the cost if you're the Cubs. You can probably get that OPS from Fukudome in center, and maybe even from Pie. Better to go looking for someone younger and more versatile to give Lou some options. Guys like Luke Scott, Jeremy Hermida, and Ryan Church are some prime examples. Even Mark Teahen, who in a smaller park, and facing lesser NL power pitchers, could very well be that '09 Jim Edmonds. And let's not forget that these guys are likely cost neutral, as you could exchange some of the Cubs arbitration-eligible talent for them.
Sorry man, it's probably not what you wanted to hear. But hey, maybe Edmonds cost bottoms out, or the Cubs preferred options fade, and the conversations are re-ignited. Past that though, the best that I can offer to Edmonds is a hearty thanks for a great 2008 season.
Filed:November 19th, 2008
(Jeff Roberson/AP)
Finally.
I take a few days to take care of business, and all sorts of hell break loose. The good news I guess is that my work blitz has finally passed, the school quarter is over, and there is plenty going on in Cubbie Nation to make things interesting. Let's get to it.
Mark Cuban.
Had to start there. With insider trading charges brought by the SEC Monday, I'd say that his bid to purchase the Cubs has unofficially officially come to an end. Now, I completely understand the nature of the charges, having worked in finance for some time. So, I understand that there likely won't be perp walks, scandal-ridden snippets, or major headlines with this outside of regional coverage, and business journals. However, this guy just can't stay out of the news, which must drive the owners of the NBA and MLB crazy.
With a new owner to be voted on as soon as December, this is terrible timing, and his announcement that he'll fight the charges -- over what amounts to a few million in fines and confiscation of gains -- is nuts. No, the charges won't do him in. But the fresh reminder to owners that in a group who not only handles their marketing and media relations poorly, but seems to have a genuine disdain for it, that this guy can't keep out the press, will.
I actually did an in-depth interview with the local ABC affiliate for reaction to the charges Monday. Piece of advice for bloggers: it's a whole other world doing TV. Playing pundit in front of a video camera will make you rethink why the hell you're doing this, especially if you're not getting paid.
Meanwhile though, Ryan Dempster was completing his rags-to-riches story, inking a 52 million dollar -- not including incentives -- deal to remain with the Cubs. Weird. As recently as a year ago, I talked to fans who would have traded him for a decent middle infielder, and a used rake. Now, we're sighing in relief that we've the right to pay him 15 million per. You know my feelings; it's more cash than I would have liked to commit to him. But the Cubs stayed away from a fifth year, and some of the amateur sabermetricians that I've chatted with think that with inflation, and the assumption of slightly above-average performance, that this looks like a good deal for the Cubs in a year or two. I'll take their word for it -- for now -- but I can't help feeling like spending that money on offers to Randy Johnson and Bobby Abreu would have been a better bet. Just saying.
And, this has to be my quote of the year:
''Maybe we underestimated how prepared you have to be, how ready you have to be, especially in a five-game series.
Game 1 pitcher Ryan Dempster said Tuesday after signing a four-year contract to return to the Cubs.
Really, you think those bush league lineups that you were going with for the last 10 days of the season may have softened you a bit? I'm shocked. Shocked.
Mark Teahen? Really? I generally give Jim Hendry a pass on evaluating talent at the major-league level. He does a real nice job there in finding diamonds in the rough, but Teahen? Let me make a suggestion. The next time that Hendry has Drayton Moore in a room talking trade -- like he reportedly did at the GM meetings -- turn out the lights, and beat Moore silly until he agrees to trade David DeJesus. Leaving a platoon in right instead of center, and letting DeJesus take that job full-time wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
Of course, I have to ask why we're considering trading for him at all, given that he's at the top of the non-tender candidate list, now that the Royals have brought Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs into the fold. That's quite a bit of money to absorb for a small-market team. I hope we find a better option, but if not let's at least wait till the non-tender deadline passes to see if the Royals blink.
One thing that hasn't changed though are the Peavy rumors. I honestly can't stop laughing. I can't think of anyone who has handled negotiations worse in recent memory that Kevin Towers. Atlanta is out, and reportedly looking at Lowe. How you let them walk away from the table, I've no idea. The Cubs look set with starters, making Peavy a very rich luxury. You don't want to deal with the Dodgers, and they're reported looking elsewhere anyway. What happens now? Any place that you send Peavy has that team likely having to open the purse strings to redo his deal; at least picking up his option, and maybe taking on years. And that reduces what those teams offer back to you in value. The Padres would do well to get the Braves back on the phone before they do a deal that makes the Santana trade looks like a massive haul.
Although, with Dempster in the fold, I would not be opposed to dangling Rich Harden, and flipping the prospects for Peavy. I keep looking at Aaron Heilman and Ryan Church in New York, and wondering if he might be that young pitcher the Padres are looking for. Bigger parks out west, less pressure, and a legitimate chance to start. And it's not like Harden isn't a massive upgrade for the Mets. Just a thought.
Kerry Wood says that he would have considered coming back to the Cubs on a one-year deal. Me thinks Kerry is spinning his butt off, but now I'm REALLY curious to see whether they offer him arbitration. Any chance at all that he put that out there to spook the Cubs into not? Sure would make him alot more attractive on the free agent market if teams didn't have to worry about giving up a draft pick.
Oh, and the Cubs will be opening the New Yankee Stadium. Consider me very, very excited. I'm working on getting tickets as we speak.
Filed:November 14th, 2008
Kerry Wood (Cubbie Nation/File)
Well, apparently it's going to be more painful than I thought.
A couple of days ago in writing this piece -- which was originally strictly about MLB's Free Agent Frenzy -- I'd predicted that the fourth year of a new contract was going to be a hell of a sticking point between the Cubs and Wood. Technically, the market wil bear it, no sensible Cubs GM would ever offer it, and someone was going to have to break, lest Wood walk.
Well, that's pretty much the score, with Cubs GM Jim Hendry announcing yesterday that Wood will not be returning to the ballclub in 09.
Hendry sums it up:
"Honestly, we feel for his own good, and for the good of him and his family, there is going to be a longer and more lucrative deal somewhere else than there would be here now. And it would be unfair to keep it dangling for another month or so and say, 'Let's see where the ownership situation is going, let's see what happens if we don't do this, we may do that.'"
In a countermove, the Cubs then sent AA pitcher Jose Ceda to the Florida Marlins for resident closer Kevin Gregg. Gregg has found new life over the last few seasons in the NL, turning himself into a reasonably effective reliever, and a reasonable closing alternative in the event that Carlos Marmol, who appears to be the closer-in-waiting, comes up lame.
Now, regular readers of this blog know already that you'll have to look elsewhere for nostalgia, and talk about Kerry Wood somehow staying because he was a "good guy". It's no diferent than what was discussed in a recent TTITIT piece. Walk away. Just walk away. I'm proud of the Cubs for two reasons this morning; that this is a sign of breaking away from a bad tradition of signing past-their-prime players to inflated deals, and watching them blow up, and that there is a capable farmhand in the organization ready to take a veterans' place.
And say what you will, but Hendry moved flawlessly in my opinion, snagging a solid closer candidate for minimal cost, and one year term. This still leaves him with money to pursue Ryan Dempster, and perhaps find a decent right field bat. I like Jose Ceda, but there are so many problems with him that I don't know where to begin. Not the least of which is it was likely that he'd make only a minimal contribution to the 09 ball club, if at all. This is a Lou Piniella team, after all. I'd always had looked for Ceda to be a fixture; just starting in 2010.There was a reason he'd been dangled as trade bait the last few months.
So, to Kerry I say thanks for the memories, and I hope you get your coin. Seriously. To Jim Hendry, thanks for finally acting like a real talent evaluator. Kevin Gregg, welcome to Chicago. You're the next Bob Howry, so don't become the next Bob Howry. And Ceda...well, I don't think you'll have the career that will justify so many being breathless about you leaving, but you'll have the chance to prove me wrong as soon as next season. But that's the point, isn't it? That veterans move on, and in baseball, youth ultimately is always served.
Free Agent Frenzy
Barry Zito (Cubbie Nation/File)
And with that, below are my picks for the 2008 Free Agent Frenzy contest. These were made two days ago, and I'm going to leave Kerry Wood as entered originally. See, I'm a little sentimental.
1) Bobby Abreu – Mets (13) – A major impact bat, and still a strong base-stealing threat. I’d love to see him in Chicago, but there are potentially two suitors in his preferred location of New York, and I think he’ll take a discount to play LF with the Mets rather than move.
2) Milton Bradley – Mariners (1) – M's need offense, and he’s productive, without the long-term commitments. It’s a good bridge choice.
3) A. J. Burnett – Orioles (9) – Once they realize that the big guys actually want to play for a contender, I expect them to start focusing on A.J. At potentially a 4/60, he’ll be the anchor that the Orioles need.
4) Pat Burrell – Giants (3) – Should follow his heart, but I suspect he’ll follow the cash. He ends up with the Giants, and they’ll at least be back to respectable next season.
5) Ryan Dempster – Mets (4) – At 5/75, he won’t be in Chicago, for certain. New York will pay, and regret it more than the deal they gave Pedro.
6) Adam Dunn – Nationals (14) -- Honestly, stick him in left until you can trade Nick Johnson, and bake.
7) Rafael Furcal – Dodgers (2) -- My sense it that no one will commit to the years that he’d like. If the rumors of 2/30 offer from the Dodgers is true, what’s the point of leaving LA then?
8) Derek Lowe – Cubs (6) – He’ll get 40-45 million offer that Dempster should be getting, and probably perform just as well at Wrigley.
9) Oliver Perez – Brewers (5) – CC staying? I’m not buying it. Oliver is a good, affordable plan B.
10) Manny Ramirez – Yankees (12) – Hank Steinbrenner won’t be able to resist the marquee name. Stick him at DH, and watch the money roll in from Red Sox/Yankees taken up a notch.
11) Francisco Rodriguez – Angels (8) – I think this is the year that reality sets in on relievers. 12 million for 60 innings of work? Not in the midst of this crisis.
12) CC Sabathia – Angels (11) – Loves California, and the Angels should be able to make a 120 million-plus offer without batting an eye. What’s to talk about?
13) Ben Sheets – Dodgers (7) – Should know better after Jason Schimdt, but I don’t think they do.
14) Mark Teixeira – Yankees (10) – Won’t be able to say no to pinstripes. Manny and Teix. God help AL East pitchers next year.
15) Kerry Wood – Cubs (15) – The Cubs will be fair, and a deal will get done. They’ll fight like hell over a 4th year for awhile though.
**Alternate choice - Rangers
Bonus: Orlando Hudson – White Sox
Filed:November 13th, 2008
Jason Marquis (Cubbie Nation - File)
Retain Jason Marquis
Yeah, I said it. I've combed the rumors mills, headlines, scouting reports, and fan blogs to a length that I'm embarrassed to admit in search of a soft landing spot for Jason Marquis. Soft as in a good situation, with a trading partner willing to offer something that resembles a decent return. To the Mets for Duaner Sanchez. To the Rangers for Kameron Loe. Even to the Giants for Randy Winn. Well, a Winn swap makes sense, but that's another post. The fact is, I see the Cubs in virtually all instances having to eat about 2 million dollars to consummate a trade, and -- barring a surprise in the market or package deal -- I think he stays.Or at least should.
It's not that he's a terrible player, you know. He's just so...average. And average even would be fine, were it not for the ludicrous 3/21 contract that Jim Hendry gave Marquis before the 2007 season. Pretty hefty numbers for a guys coming off of a season that ended with him carrying a 6.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. But he did, leaving Cubbie Nation to wonder not only why the Cubs bid against themselves, but what could have been in improving the team with that payroll flexibilty back.
In reality though, maybe Jim had a little hindsight, given the insane contracts doled out to pitchers since. 20 million to Scott Linebrink, as a middle reliever? Kyle Lohse grabbing 40 million? Carlos Silva worth 50 million? Hell, even Ryan Dempster now thinks he's worth 75 million dollars. It's nuts. The market for pitching has deteriorated to the point where Juan Cruz may see a huge payday this offseason. If I thought that the Cubs could pluck from somewhere 200 innings of league-average work for less than 8 million to replace Jason with, I'd say move him. However, I don't. Maybe Bartolo Colon or Randy Wolf, but why chance it?
Fortunately, the good news is that now that Marquis has been seeing a sports psychologist to address his late-season debacles, he appears to be a bit more solid overall. And given that this is a contract season for him as well, I say hold. I suspect that with the Peavy deal probably being a smokescreen, and with Dempster and the Cubs at a contractual impasse, the team may actually need him.
2008 NL ROY Geovany Soto (Cubbie Nation/File)
Filed:November 12th, 2008
Fortunately, all surprises aren't this bad.
In the least surprising move of the 2008 season, Geovany Soto has been named the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year. I mean, when you're playing the most demanding position on the field, and doing it for a division winner, it pretty much breaks about every possible tie. For everyone keeping score, Geo is now the 5th Cubs to receive the honor, following Billy Williams, Ken Hubbs, Jerome Walton, and Kerry Wood. This is the 3rd Cubs ROY that I've personally seen play, and I have to say, he's more talented than the bunch. A big bat, good game caller, and the most fundamentally sound position player that the Cubs have grown on the farm since Brendan Harris. If they don't ask him to do too much, and allow him to grow naturally into a leadership role, this kid is going to be a star. Congratulations to Soto. Oh, and for those interested, the final voting tally is below.
2008 NL Rookie of the Year Voting
Player, Club Points Geovany Soto, CHC 158 Joey Votto, CIN 76 Jair Jurrjens, ATL 34 Edinson Volquez, CIN 9 Jay Bruce, CIN 7 Kosuke Fukudome, CHC 4
Elsewhere, it appears that the stench of desperation has finally come over the Tribune, with requests for new offers for the purchase of the Cubs, and proof of ability to pay to be submitted by Thanksgiving. Numerous sources have reported it, but I figured I'd include the Tribune, so you can get it from the source.
Now, I've tried to discuss this as little as possible, but I feel almost compelled to, since it's becoming terribly apparent that bloggers and beat writers don't seem to actually know much about business. That's cool, but that lack of knowledge makes for some interesting writing, to be sure.
I don't think that many people realize that there is a difference between Sam Zell and the Tribune. Two different entities. Sam Zell is rich. Very rich, although market deterioration has eaten away much of that in the last year. Sam Zell can afford just about anything that he wants, and what he can't afford, someone will lend him the rest to get. The Tribune on the other hand is the corporate equivalent of a very poor cousin, living hand to mouth, and just a paycheck away from being homeless. It has no cash, no further access to credit, and its current creditors are incredibly skittish; more so now that rating agencies are calling its bond offerings less than investment grade. That's right, you can't even call them junk bonds; that would be an upgrade.
Know what a tranche is? You should go check. Seriously. The Tribune has over half a billion dollars due in debt service on their primary tranches within the next year, and currently no means to pay. None. Now, I suppose that they could start selling off papers to cover this, but that only eats into the long-term profitability of the company, and does significant damage to them with analysts, as they've held from the beginning that maintaining and improving the core paper business was critical to the turnaround plan. No, in reality, they must, must sell the Cubs; on schedule, and with the least amount of fuss possible. They simply cannot risk defaulting on those lines, and have those creditors start exercising covenants, which wouldn't even be the worst blowback from defaults coming to pass. It's simply not correct to suggest that Sam Zell will hold out, and fight owners over the highest bid, if need be. A couple hundred million either way on the sale is nothing compared to the hell that follows if they don't raise this cash. You might as well just close the doors the day after. The Tribune will sell the Cubs to the first person -- that MLB owners will accept -- that can raise about 600 million the quickest and easiest. Want to find out who is going to own the Cubs? Follow the money. If your favorite front-runner is cash-rich, or has the best access to cash, that's your guy. And for those who think that's Mark Cuban, think again, at least according to a recent Sun-Times piece:
Cuban has a colorful reputation and drinks beer in the stands with the fans, but the source said the credit drought has hurt his chances. "Whatever the price for the Cubs, he was only going to put in $100 million of his own money," the source said.
As if owners would even agree to sell one of their marquee franchises to an owner with that little skin in the game.
My point is, anyone who tells you that the sale of the Cubs will be delayed is simply wrong. It will be on time, orderly, and consistent with the wishes of MLB, and its owners. Even if that means them continuing to hold a stake -- at least temporarily -- until the market conditions improves. The Tribune Corp is simply not in the baseball business. It's in the media business, and the people they deal with only want to hear about the money. So, unless you start hearing that the LA Times may go up for sale, Zell has only one choice to raise half a billion bucks by May: Sale the Cubs. And quickly.
Atlanta Brave Kelly Johnson(Cubbie Nation/File)
Filed:November 9th, 2008
Ryan Theriot, Sean Marshall, and Jose Ceda to Atlanta for Kelly Johnson(Subsequently shipped with Jordan Schafer to San Diego for Jake Peavy)
Pitching is not always king.
Reflecting over the Cubs team of the last few seasons -- and in particular the playoffs -- their problem is not pitching. It’s hitting, mostly. And to be perfectly honest, it’s a bit professionalism. The 2008 Cubs had a potent offense, capable pitching, and a reasonably strong defense, however when it came time to perform under the glare of a national spotlight, they faded. Again. Why?
1) There is nothing wrong with Alfonso Soriano as a lead-off man. Seriously. But when you have that sort of streaky ballplayer leading off, you are obligated to have a rock-solid professional hitter hitting behind him. And considering the Cubs righty-oriented middle of the order, preferably a left-handed one. The Cubs served up slap-hitting Ryan Theriot instead for most of the season in the two-hole, and in the ultimate indignity, even used Kosuke Fukudome there in the series against the Dodgers. Won’t work. At least not against the premier opponents.
2) Professionalism – There has long been anecdotal evidence that the Cubs refused to embrace advance scouting reports, and as they found themselves matched against more competitive teams, this was severely exploited. Additionally, pitchers have the book on Cubs hitters, and many have been very slow to make adjustments. Aramis Ramirez? Completely clutch. But when you start looking at players from last season: Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee, Jim Edmonds, and especially Soriano, you’ve got big-time players that end up looking outmatched. They haven’t forgotten how to hit, but they are not coming up to the plate prepared.
3) Terrible lineup composition. Everybody knows it, most especially manager Lou Piniella. The lack of lefties is killing this team!!! If you had any doubt, simply look to the 2008 NLDS, where the Dodgers could send in a late-inning righty, and they stayed in for multiple innings, and the Cubs had no strong lefties to make the opposing manager get situational. In May against the Pirates, it probably doesn’t matter. In the Fall against the cream of the league? You’re going to get abused. Brian Roberts would have fixed much of this, but short of a miracle happening, they’ll need to look elsewhere.
My point? For the Cubs, pitching isn’t your problem; your makeup is. So imagine my surprise as I’ve read and listened to the rumors of the Cubs involving themselves in a battle for the rights to Jake Peavy.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s an amazing talent, and certain to make almost any good team an immediate serious contender. That’s not the problem. What perplexes me is the 13 million or so annual commitment that he demands, and that’s assuming that you’re not required to tear up that contract in order to have Peavy waive his NTC. This solves any of the Cubs current issues…how?
Now, I’ve heard the rumors that starter Ryan Dempster is looking for a 5/75 deal, which I still can’t stop laughing about. So, I can see that if you’re a casual observer to the Cubs, the idea of replacing him with Jake for about the same cost makes some sense. However, if you look a bit closer, you’d see that the Cubs can still be a very competitive team without either, fielding a likely starting rotation of:
ZambranoLillyMarquisHardenGaudin/Samardzija/Hill/any 5th starter FA signing
It’s a good staff to start the season, and the Cubs could save the cash for potential pickups at the deadline. Oh, and for those lefty bats that they covet.
My suggestion? Get out of this nonsense, and move toward using this deal to pluck a real shortstop in Kelly Johnson. To those who don’t know, Kelly is an old shortstop, turned outfielder, turned second baseman. Reportedly, he was quite talented, but with guys like Rafael Furcal lurking around in the system, there was always a better talent at the position. Now, it’s understandable – given their long history of solid shortstops – that the Braves would move him out of that spot. However, for the Cubs, Kelly is both an upgrade at the shortstop position and a solution to a number of other problems with their ball club. Better range and arm than the incumbent. Left-handed bat. A legitimate top-of-the-order hitter. And a genuine professional from the Braves organization. Their prospects always come up knowing how to play the game right. Well, maybe not Wilson Betemit, but there is always an exception.
Further, by getting out of the Peavy deal, the Padres now have their hand forced, leaving them to deal with the Braves almost exclusively, which should keep the price down a bit.
So, let see: a major-league ready starter, a starting SS, a centerfield prospect, and a late-inning reliever for a guy with a NTC that’s he’s enforcing strongly enough to call the shots on this deal? Sounds about right to me. Everyone gets what they really need, and I think the Cubs get better in the process.
Ronny Cedeno - File (Cubbie Nation/File)
Filed:November 7th, 2008
Ronny Cedeno and Neal Cotts to Baltimore for George Sherrill
I can't stand a lunkhead.
During the course of the baseball season, I inevitably end up in at least two conversations a week about whether Cedeno is a good shortstop. Amateur sabermetricians and more defense-oriented fans love him, and can't figure out why he doesn't play more. Maybe you've seen him on TV, and wondered the same thing. But if you're watching 20-40 games a season at Wrigley like I do, we're generally in agreement on why that is; he's a lunkhead.
Whether it's his being prone to defensive guffaws at the worst possible moments, a total inability to effectively run the base paths, no comprehension of situational hitting, or slugger-like swing, he will do something in almost every game in which he appears that will leave you wondering why is he on a major league ballclub at all. Manager Lou Piniella gets it, even going so far as to make Mike Fontenot his primary infield backup, regardless of Cedeno's defensive talents.
Here's the good news though. There are 30 general managers in baseball. Numerous assistant GMs, player personnel directors, cross checkers, managers, hitting coaches, and infield instructors. In all, probably a few hundred guys -- and women -- in a position of influence around baseball. All it takes is a couple to think "we can fix this guy", and a player like Cedeno is in play.
The likeliest place for this to happen is Baltimore, where the shortstop solutions are possibly even worse than their starting pitching. No team in baseball is in more need of a upgrade at the position than the Orioles, who fielded the likes of Brandon Fahey, Freddie Bynum, and Alex Cintron there in 2008, with the expected terrible results. For the Orioles, Cedeno represents a real and tangible upgrade right now, with meaningful upside, as they are a place that can afford to give him a season-long assessment.
Now, I suppose that they could try and convince a bigger talent to sign with them via free agency, but in reality, they need to spend that money on infrastructure, and pitching. Lots and lots of pitching. And really, as they appear to be putting together a major Teixeira offer, and Brian Roberts extension, the cash is effectively spent. There's just no point in overpaying for Hudson or Furcal to join the club, which is what would likely need to happen to get a free agent to join a rebuilding team.
In return, the Cubs collective an effective -- albeit over and mis-used -- middle reliever. George Sherrill came over from the Mariners as part of that big Erik Bedard trade, and was thrust into the closer's role following injuries to Danys Baez and Chris Ray. He did a fantastic job overall, collecting 31 saves in 2008, and making the All-Star game. The reality though is that he's a closer in name and situation only, and as the season wore on, this reality eventually set in. Sherrill would finish the season with a 4.73 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP. It is the AL East, after all. However, he has always been able to get left-handed hitters out, and has blossomed into a legitimate set-up man, capable of retiring righties as well. Bottom line is that George is not a closer, and would be much more productive in his usual setup role. With a gaping hole left by the booting departure of Scott Eyre, and a very affordable price tag, I think Sherrill would be a welcome addition to the Cubs.
A full-time position player for a middle reliever? What do you think?
Filed:November 5th, 2008
Felix Pie and Nick Swisher (Cubbie Nation/File and AP)
Felix Pie and Michael Weurtz to the White Sox for Nick Swisher
It shouldn't have come to this really. Pie has long been the apple of the organization's eye, even going so far as to make his way onto the 2008 roster as the Opening Day starter. However, a terrible April quickly lead to his place in the Lou Piniella doghouse, and ultimately, a trip to the minors in May. Now, it wasn't so much that he didn't hit, as that doesn't really seem to be something Lou worries too much about in general. No, it was his approach at the plate, slowness in adopting coaching and instruction, and lack of batter's eye that did him in.
However, after making the September callups, we got to see a much more polished Felix, going .300/.391/.450 in September. Small sample size? Absolutely. However, it was seeing him take pitches, make adjustments, and seem more at ease around the ballpark that convinced me that he was adapting. And while I don't think that that this triple slash number is representative of his talents, I can certainly see him settling in somewhere in the .270/.340/.450 range as a pro.
Unfortunately for him though, he's out of time; or at least options. And the pronouncement that the Cubs were shopping for a power-hitting outfielder this off-season means that Kosuke Fukudome is likely headed out to center for a platoon with Reed Johnson, at least for 2008. Now, there might be some appeal to leaving Felix on the roster as a fifth outfielder to start the season, but it's my position that it can only devalue him in trade further. Kosuke Fukudome and his contract won't be leaving anytime soon, and so it's time for Felix to go.
And by go, we mean the Southside. Ozzie Guillen and the Sox have been looking for a strong centerfield solution for a few years now, with no one able to grab the ring, even going so far as to send Swisher out there for 70 games last season. That's desperate. Brian Anderson isn't the answer, and neither is Dewayne Wise. Jerry Owens? Even if his .700 OPS excited you, his situation is worse than Waiting for Godot. Move on. Kenny Williams recently stated that he's interested in taking the White Sox through a youth movement, and we agree. We just think he's got the wrong youth.
Now one might argue that a .219 average -- Swisher's 2008 average -- is not something worth trading for, and normally you'd be right. But Nick Swisher hasn't forgotten how to hit at age 27, as his 24 home runs last year can somewhat attest to. The combination of playing out of position, a new city, and chemistry hurt him in 2008, and he's likely to have a strong bounceback in 2009. But just as Felix is relegated to a 4th outfielder due to situations out of his control, Swisher is dealing with MVP candidates in the outfield, and an immoveable NTC at first.
With that, and a very affordable contract in 2009 and 2010, we think he's just the right part and personality to fit in with the Cubs in 2009. While some will likely consider the return of Jim Edmonds a more attractive alternative, we don't. Not at 12 years older, and likely a couple of million more in cost.
Bottom line, it's the perfect buy low strategy for both teams, with tremendous upside at each end. For the Cubs, you get a player likely to at least reproduce Edmond's 2008 numbers. For the Sox, a strong centerfield candidate under control for five-plus more years, and much needed bullpen help. It's a win-win.
2008 Chicago Cubs (Cubbie Nation/File)
Welcome to the Hot Stove Season.
It officially kicks off this week, with the General Managers' meeting, and continues with the official opening of free agency November 13th. So far, some 100-plus players have filed for free agency, and even with less than ideal market conditions, most can expect to see significant interest and sizable pay increases in this wonderful world of baseball parity. Teams are flush, and the Wild Card makes every GM start getting delusions of grandeur, no matter what their actual situation.
And the Cubs? Well, not so much. Even their pocketbook has a limit, and as we transition out of the Zell/Tribune ownership into...well, whomever is going to own this thing with the Trib, management is putting a clamp on big contracts. Crane Kenney says general manager Jim Hendry will have the money to work though, even if he won't be able to drop another 50 million or so on his favorite free agent.
So, how then do you improve a team that won 97 games last season, without the benefit of being able to take on meaningful salary? And for that matter, do you want to try? Many have some ideas about that, and here at Cubbie Nation, we've got a few as well.
That said, over the next week we'll be bringing you a five-part series known as "Five moves the Cubs should make...but probably won't". We've scoured the free-agent roster, looked at who is currently out of favor with their current club, and considered at some depth what the hell is wrong with these Cubs. From this, we've determined five transactions that should take place to improve the 2009 Cubs, and hopefully make them a touch better in the postseason; assuming that they get back, of course. We think you'll enjoy it.
Check back often over the next week, and definitely drop us a note and tell us what you think.