Cedeno, Olson trade to the Mariners...And I love it!! by Damen Jackson

Pie on the move; Peavy next? by Damen Jackson

Filed:January 19th, 2009

Felix Pie (Cubbie Nation/File)

This had to be the Cubs worst-kept secret in recent memory.

With a glut of big-money starting outfielders, and a growing legion of potential backups in the fold, it was never really a question of if Pie was going to be traded -- or even to who really, if you stopped and thought about it. Just how soon, and how low was the return going to be.

Pie is headed to the Baltimore Orioles this morning, where according to the Baltimore Sun, he'll be inserted into left field full-time to see what he can do. What the Cubs got in return was starter Garrett Olson, and Class A pitcher Hank Williamson.

You'll hear no complaints from me about this deal, for a variety of reasons. In my opinion, the Cubs have done a real poor job helping to transition Pie into the majors. I know ultimately, it's on the player, but I've seen some big mistakes over the last few seasons that were very frustrating.

Personally, I thought he should have broke camp as a fourth outfielder last season, as opposed to getting the job with such obvious flaws. I also thought that once they had made that commitment, they should have been prepared to give him a couple hundred at-bats to get a good read on things. You know, drop him to the bottom of the lineup, and see what's there. There was a lot of backtracking at the Cubs Convention this year from management suggesting otherwise, but the Cubs hit extremely well last year, especially before Memorial Day. It could have been done.

There are other issues, but I suppose at this point, it's just best to move in.

As for Garrett Olson, who looked, well, rocky last year for the Orioles, it's probably about the best that you could hope for given the situation. Personally, I would have preferred Radhames Liz -- who is rougher, but has much higher upside -- but most believe that Olson should be okay as a starter at the tail end of the rotation.

I give most pitching prospects in Baltimore a pass anyway though, as they've generally diamonds in the rough out there that don't seem to get polished very well at the minor-league level. Cabrera, Olson, Liz. Even Erik Bedard was something of an underperformer. Move him out of the AL East, get him into AAA for a half-season to work on his location, and Olson should be fine.

Although probably not for the Cubs. The scouting report on him reads like Sean Marshall, without the endurance concerns. He could provide some pitching depth, but would you really start him in a pitch over Marshall, Gaudin, or Jeff Samardzija? Would Lou?

And given that there were rumors last month of the Padres being interested, one wonders whether his stay in Chicago will be short.

It's a good deal for both sides, with some decent upside each way. If you had to ask me though, long-term I see Baltimore getting the better of this deal -- past the Cubs spinning Olson for a bigger haul. I really believe by June, Felix will be showing people that's he's better than we thought. Best of luck to him either way though.

Hanging at the Cubs Convention; What I learned... by Damen Jackson

Filed:January 17th, 2009

2009 Cubs Convention - Meet the Cubs Management session (Cubbie Nation/file)

You know, I'd never actually been to a Cubs Convention before. A variety of circumstances over the years had made it all but impossible. Timing, costs, living out of town for a time -- not to mention I usually consider it a touch too fanatical for me -- have kept me away.

However, I'm a huge believer that if you're going to write about something, then 1) you need to know that topic well, and 2) you've got to be on-hand; on scene, you know? So, here I am at my first Cubs Convention, taking it all in. And while I'll have a more detailed write-up at the end, I thought I'd pass along some things that I've seen, heard, and thought so far from the event.

Jim Hendry says that a one-year deal for Kerry Wood was never discussed. At the Meet the Cubs Management session this morning, he swears that Kerry and his people set the starting point at three years, and big dollars from the beginning. His big reason for saying no? They ran the numbers, and came to the conclusion that Kerry has been injured and unavailable 62% of the time over the last four years. No deal. I stick to my opinion that the blister debacle last summer sealed his fate.

Hendry says the Cubs "Played tighter than we did all year" in the 2008 postseason. Piniella says "They "over-tried" in the post-season". Sounds like everyone agrees that it was a big fat choke job.

In the Meet the Lou-tentants session, Piniella and Gerald Perry attributed Fukudome's woes primarily to tiring out from the environment and lifestyle changes and not being conditioned for baseball post-surgery, and getting pitched inside. They sent him back home to perform more traditional core work this off-season, which will at least help remove the conditioning part. Personally, if I were an opposing manager -- especially in the NL Central -- I'd have a couple of my guys hit him early in the season, and start wreaking havoc with his head.

And believe me, the Wood and DeRosa blowback was hot, but it's clear Fukudome is setting up as the whipping boy for this season with the fans.

Jeff Samardzija has been told by the club to come to camp "prepared to start". I suspect he either gets that fifth starter spot, or hangs out in AAA till they need him, starting there. Hendry says they are still looking for seventh- and eigth-inning help, which further cements this notion.

Randy Bush thinks that not only will Mitch Atkins make the club in 2009, but looks for him to contribute.

Crane Kenney says the priest was a dumb idea, and it was all on him.

Look for the Friendly Confines area of the ballpark to be turned into a full-blown beer garden, with post-game hours to boot.

And the best of all, Jim Hendry says that the Milton Bradley deal was in the works for a long time. The club did extensive research and background, including medical and interviews with ex-coaches and teammates. He commented that this is where Bradley wanted to be, to the point in which he didn't leave himself a fallback, but then goes on to claim that he left more money on the table in coming here. Sigh. Sports GMs are becoming worse than politicians when it comes to getting a direct answer.

For what it's worth, they're looking for him to top out at about 135 games played this year. From Jim's lips.

There's a few good photos from the event here. I'll post more tomorrow at the end of the event.

Michael Young to Chicago? Lord, I hope not by Damen Jackson

Filed:January 12th, 2009


Could have seen it coming.

As soon as I saw the news out of Texas that Michael Young was demanding a trade, I figured it was but hours before the grumblings and rumors started in the blogosphere about the Cubs acquiring his talents from the Rangers. It appears so. Admittedly there is a need, and while certainly an upgrade, I find even the idea of Michael Young wearing a Cubs uniform unfathomable.

Disclaimer: I love the Texas Rangers. They're one of my top five teams, and have been for some time. The Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, and of course the Cubs fill that five out, by the way. I got hooked in the late '80s, when Nolan Ryan was striking out everything in sight for them, and Bobby Witt was just turning into the source of frustration that he was destined to become. I've watched them from a distance casually for a while, and with a very critical eye over the last few seasons.

So, as a casual -- well, maybe a bit more so than casual -- fan, I've seen the trials and tribulations of that franchise, and taken some note. In my opinion, there are three things that have consistently done them in. First, is the inability to produce and develop starting pitching of any significance. It's the 800-pound gorilla in the room that they've ignored for the last 25 years. Second. a willingness to ignore their lack of pitching, preferring to overpay for offense instead. And lastly, the hubris of owner Tom Hicks.

The last two bring me back to Michael Young. His 80 million-dollar contract extension in 2007 was an utter and complete head scratcher at the time, for a variety of reasons.

For example, why did they do it two years before his current contract expired?

Why five years and 80 million dollars at a time when even the inflated free agent market wouldn't have netted him that? The worst case would have been waiting to negotiate in the open market instead, where they likely still wouldn't have paid much more than this; probably less.

Why after a year in which his OPS had dropped almost 100 points from the previous season, giving some indications that he may have already peaked?

And most importantly, why did they structure the agreement so that the extension would go into effect during Young's age 32 season, rather than tearing up the old deal, and starting this one in 2007? Why would any small market team pay 16 million dollars for a 37 year-old shortstop, who was already showing hints of decline?

And let's not forget the question that I personally grappled with the most; if the defense of Young was anything close to that value, given the bandbox that the Rangers play in, why weren't they drafting or acquiring pitchers with stronger ground ball tendencies, to maximize his value? A few years ago, his defense was quite good, and frankly, that strategy would likely have netted them a few more wins.

Well, now as Young's offensive stats have deteriorated further, the icing on the cake is that he's refusing to move off short for a better solution, in 20-year old Elvis Andrus. Putting aside the fact that he's actually earned the right to stay at his position -- or be traded someplace that will let him stay there -- and that he's a ridiculously bad third base solution, is the fact that the albatross of a contract now becomes a chemistry problem for the team, to boot. And a completely needless one, at that.

Frankly, heads should be rolling in Texas for this nutty contract, and likely would were it not for Tom Hick's direct involvement. But any general manager -- I'm talking to you especially Jim Hendry -- that would consider getting involved in this Titanic of a deal even as the boat is sinking, should seriously consider stepping down. Or their team's owner should remove them.

In a nutshell, at the rapid rate of Young's offensive decline, the Rangers will likely effectively be paying 16 million dollars annually for Ceasar Izturis in less than another couple of seasons. They made a huge mistake when they chose not to let Young walk away after this season, or at least wait to negotiate with him on the open market. I can only hope that Hendry isn't considering doubling-down on the Young debacle.

Milton Bradley; The post that I didn't want to write by Damen Jackson

Filed:January 10th, 2009

Milton Bradley (M. Spencer Green/AP)

Nothing left to do at this point but turn out the lights, start making your Spring Training plans, and count the number of days till the inevitable trip to the DL for Bradley -- and hope that it won't be too long a stay.

Yes, Milton Bradley passed his physical yesterday, and with it became the Cubs right fielder du jour, signing a three year, 30 million dollar deal.

Now, the only thing that I can see about this signing that's a plus is that 1) the third year appears to be only semi-guaranteed, as a set of unmet conditions swing it to an option year, and 2) there doesn't appear to be a non-trade clause in effect; a bad idea usually in general, and completely insane for a situation where there may be serious redundancy at the position by season's end, in addition to the volatile nature of the player.

But leave it to Jim Hendry to back load the contract, owing over 12 million in salary and bonuses to Bradley for the 2010 season, a year that already promised to wreck financial havoc with the Cubs. It's just another reason to be down on this deal, as the Cubs will likely now be facing major involuntary shakeups next season. And call me a simple man, but if the Cubs were able to come to terms with Milton Bradley for a 5 million dollar salary in 2009, then why in the world is Mark DeRosa not still here, at least until such point as he could have been moved for more than a something-maybe, and two never-will-be prospects? It's not like the Cubs couldn't have afforded him. The Marquis trade would have more than covered this salary, and DeRosa was set to walk after the 2009 season anyway, likely netting at least one, and probably two high draft prospects. Not to mention holistically removing that salary from the roster, and natural succession at the second base position. Not to mention a backup option in right that could, you know, be counted on to hit. One need only have made sure that Luis Vizcaino was either traded or released prior to the deadline, and the problem is solved.

It's yet another reason that I hate virtually everything about this off-season for the Cubs, their insane pursuit of lefty bats, and this signing in particular. But let me share with you what bothers me most: Milton Bradley can't stay on the field.

When players suggest that Bradley is a solid teammate, I believe them. And I may even give him the benefit of the doubt when he says that he's matured and changed.

"I don't feel like everybody's against me anymore. I really felt in the past like I had to watch my back about everyone and everything. But I learned that you've got to trust somebody at some point."

Fine Milton. But my measure of good baseball players is reproduceable talent. Let me say that again: reproduceable talent. Guys who are able to go out, year after year, and have productive seasons, with limited volatility, an occasional great year, and hopefully a minimum amount of fanfare.

So when I look around the free agent landscape this off-season, most in the world seams right to me. Raul Ibanez, as consistent a bat as there is, get a big -- for this market -- contract, while Pat Burrell signs for peanuts in Tampa Bay. That makes sense.

When you can't take the field for 130 games or more in a season, you are not a dependable player. When you cannot make 25 starts or more, you are not a dependable player. When you cannot be called on three straight days to close, you are not a dependable player. And you should never see top dollar in the market, as teams are forever forced to hedge their bets, and have a ready -- and usually expensive -- Plan B ready to address your deficits. Yet, here we are with the Cubs doing exactly that, minus the good Plan B.

No, I don't much care if Bradley is the biggest nut in the game. If Lou Piniella thinks that he can manage him, that's good enough for me; for now. But until he proves that he can take the field consistently, consider me down on Bradley, and down on the Cubs 2009 playoff prospects.

Marquis traded, Hendry's roster reshaping nearing completion by Damen Jackson

Filed:January 6th, 2009

Jason Marquis (Cubbie Nation/File)

The Rockies. The Giants. The Mets. I always thought it had to be one of the three. Rockies "win".

The Cubs today finalized a deal that will send Jason Marquis to the Rockies , along with a reported $875,000 in cash, in exchange for reliever Luis Vizcaino. The anticipated cost savings now all but clears the path to the Cubs signing free agent Milton Bradley later this week.

You'll forgive me if I don't cry for Marquis. He did a great job for the Cubs over the last two seasons. I won't go so far as to say he ate up innings, which is one of the more intellectually dishonest ideas that I've heard in baseball, but he earned his pay. He took the ball every fifth day, got some big wins, and stabilized what was a very shaky starting pitching situation upon his arrival in Chicago. He made a great anchor on the back end, and for that, he'll be missed.

Unfortunately, he was about the eighth-best pitcher on the Cubs staff -- or at least he was last year -- which means that even in today's market, his 9 million dollar salary for '09 was terribly out of place, and something of an albatross. In short, he needed to go, even if Hendry wasn't earmarking the cash for a new right fielder. Colorado's staff is depleted, and he'll look to slot in behind Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook to solidify their young staff, much as he helped do here.

Colorado is a good spot too. He's done well there, going 3-0 with a 2.51 ERA in limited duty. Jason has posted similar stats in most of the other NL West ballparks, and pitching primarily in those spacious parks should curb his home run rate considerably, something of the fatal flaw in his game. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him win 14-16 games next year. So at essentially 1/8 -- and parting with only the problematic Vizcaino in return -- it's a strong move for Colorado, who all of a sudden doesn't look so out of it in a very down NL West.

And the Cubs, well if they're smart, they'll make some calls, hear some offers, and deal Vizcaino before the start of Spring Training, so as to free up the money completely. The Cubs staff doesn't look nearly as strong as it did in 2008, but it's still good, so it's hard to see him getting late-inning duty here. That said, 4 million for middle relief is nuts. Maybe you keep Luis if it allows you to trade Wueurtz, but given the option of Wuertz at 2.5 million, and Vizcaino at 4, I choose Wuertz.

Here's to hoping that Hendry clears the space, and shops for a better fifth starter instead.

Cubbie Nation Power Rankings by Damen Jackson

 Filed:January 2nd, 2009

Al Yellon/Bleed Cubbie Blue

I still prefer the Fall Classic.

Not even a couple of seasons as an Andy Frain usher in the old Chicago Stadium was enough to turn me into a fan. It just never took.

But as a baseball-crazed fan dreaming fondly of warmer times, and counting the days to Spring Training, it was nice to see a vibrant, populated Wrigley Field. I appreciated seeing a few fan shots of Wrigley in the winter, so I figured that you might too.

That said, this is as good a time as any to start taking a look around the league to see the progression of things. Baseball is almost here again, after all. And while the free agent signings haven't advanced along as far as we might have hoped, we're certainly far enough into the off-season to get a feel about who is serious about winning in 2009.

As such, welcome to the Power Rankings, a new piece that we'll be featuring here at Cubbie Nation. Although you should expect from here till Opening Day to see it once or twice a month, it's slotted as a weekly article from then on out.

Enjoy the piece, and for that matter the rest of your holiday weekend. And drop me a note when the champagne wears off, and let me know what you think.